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NL2 zoom: flopped straight on dry board - slowplay gone wrong - or not?

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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU$2.00:///////;SB$4.64:///////;BB$2.15:///////;MP2 (Hero)$2.00:///////;MP3$3.97:///////;CO$2.08:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:c, 3:c.
Hero raises to $0.06, MP3 calls $0.06, 3 folds, BB calls $0.04.

Flop: ($0.19) 2:s, 4:d, 5:c (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.08, MP3 calls $0.08, BB folds.

Turn: ($0.35) 9:h (2 players)
Hero bets $0.24, MP3 raises to $0.65, Hero calls $0.41.

River: ($1.65) 5:d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $1.20,

Spoiler

Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

Final Pot: $1.65.

Ok what´s your play on turn and river?

I find this spot very interesting and I actually like my play. I practically flop the nuts, c-bet, get called, c-bet blank turn, get raised and only call hoping the board does not pair. Of course the board pairs. Funny thing if I raise the turn, sets will never fold, probably not even 2pair (some of which also boat up but which are generally less likely.). So in the end I would lose more if I got it in on the turn with the nuts, since he always calls and gets my whole stack if he boats up, whereas as played when the board does not pair I still get his stack in all likelyhood but I can fold the river if it does pair.

Since I rarely see him bluffing the turn, that´s also why I fold the river. If I could not fold the river anyway, of course I should get it in on the turn. And if he does bluff with some frequency, I can call the river but I just do not see him bluff. So, I do not see any value hands that I beat (there is an off chance that he might have some 5x that he raises the turn with but really not very likely. Maybe an overpair.).

Had he just called the turn, my plan was to check the river and let him stick it in with his set or, if he were ever bluffing, with his bluff. I do not think he would check behind a set or 2pair on any river. Maybe donk-shipping the river is better, though, just to make sure to get value of possible slow-played overpairs on his part which he might check behind, depending on the river card, and considering that he is almost never on a bluff.

Do you agree it was a good fold? And if not, should I consequently ship the turn?


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3 replies
MancaMulas
Joined: 12.03.2009

First, I would not open A3s UTG.

As played, I would get it in on the turn since the opponent seems to be willing to go all-in, and you have the best possible hand on that board. Calling his raise on the turn is not a bad play IMO but it would be better if you were IP calling a check/raise from MP3. As you are OOP, you will check to him on the river and he can cbh with his TT/JJ and you are losing value.

As played on the turn, I think I would call his bet on the river. Ok he can have a boat, but you have a break even equity of about 30% and based on that I would call


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey guys,

Flop is fine.

Imo villain is usually pretty strong on the turn, this is not a common spot for a bluff-raise at these limits. For this reason I'd just re-raise the turn and try and get stacks in before villain rivers a boat. His most likely holding on the turn is a set so river play is fine for this reason.


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briccius
Joined: 26.06.2007

Ok I have analysed this spot a little more thoroughly in the meantime. I need to be good about 28 % of the time to make the call. If he never has any bluffs and NO overpairs, the fold is good. It is quite a strong assumption to make but considering MP3 flats a normal 3x raise pre, with 2 late pos players plus the blinds behind him, he will almost never have AA-QQ. He might have JJ and TT and As5s. Those would be like the only hands that I beat that might bet the turn & river like this, for better or worse. If they are in his range, river should be a call, taking into account the pot odds.


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