KQo MP vs UTG Bluff 3betting and Hitting TP

The types of hands he's gonna be cold calling 3bet are usually AJ+/JJ-99.

Since we can't really expect him to minraise JJ/TT and AK/AJ (except possibly A♦:K♦: and A♦:J♦: ) his range is crushing KQ pretty hard.

First of all we need to note that 65 hands are way too small of a sample to make a decision for bluff 3 betting a guy from EP.
Secondly we need some more info on UTG Fold3bet stat. Is it overall 67 or from UTG? Many villains have that number but fold less from EP. As mentioned above we need a sample of more than 5 situations to have a vague image.
On the flop after we face that agression we have to give up.
What cards will make you stronger on turn?

metza, I think we probably can't give him a range because his move indicates that he probably isn't a great player. I even think he can have 22 or something like A4s in this situation because he is obviously a fish.

nitrol, 67 is his overall fold to 3bet. The sample is too small to have exact fold to 3bet stat on the UTG, or even OOP. I could agree to some extent that we can't 3bet bluff an unknown on the UTG, but I also think that we have to exploit some population tendencies in those situations, and one of them is that they fold too much to 3bets, especially oop. I play zoom games at Stars and it's hared to have enough sample size of players. Furthermore, his stats look kind of regish in the sample size, so I like to go ahead and try to take him off whatever he has.

I agree that I should probably give up on the Flop (bet/fold), but on the other hand, he is giving me 17% pot odds, and I think he can still have some draws and maybe even some worse hands, like QJ, because we assumed that he is a fish.

Anyway, thank you both for the comments!

What makes you think he's obviously a fish?

Originally posted by metza
What makes you think he's obviously a fish?

He called a 3bet MP vs UTG on the BB. I think that most good players have only value 4bet range and bluff 4bet range, thus merged range. They don't call. He will be oop postflop and likely against two opponents with strong ranges. What hands can he profitably call there, except KK+, which is bad to just call in this situation in most cases, imo? Also, this minraise on the flop. I would raise my sets bigger in this situation to protect them.

I've played decent sample at nl16 zoom and seen quite a few regs just overcalling the hands I listed in such spots. You're right that most good players will not flat 99 etc here but the great thing about nl16 is a lot of the regs are not good players, imo its softer than nl10 zoom.

Originally posted by metza
I've played decent sample at nl16 zoom and seen quite a few regs just overcalling the hands I listed in such spots. You're right that most good players will not flat 99 etc here but the great thing about nl16 is a lot of the regs are not good players, imo its softer than nl10 zoom.

Yeah, I also thinkg it's softer.