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Double gut-shot, call small raises on flop and turn?

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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

On the flop, I have a double gut-shot and 2 overcards, so I think it is an easy contibet. After Villain raises, I put him on something like {88+, AJ, KJ(s), QJ(s)}. Against that range my overcards aren't worth much: if an A comes, then I'm still beaten by {AA, JJ, TT, 88, AJ} and if a Q comes then I'm beaten by {88+, KJ(s), QJ(s)}. However the raise is sufficiently small that it's worth calling for the DGS. I need to pay 23c with a 99c pot, so the pot odds are slightly better than 4:1, so I don't need much by way of implied odds for call to be profitable here.

When he bets again on the turn, I think his range is probably {88+, AJ}. Against that range I have only 20% equity. The bet is small again, and I'm offered odds of better than 3:1. I'm still winning if a K or 9 comes, and given that he's bet twice already, I think there's a reasonable chance of taking his stack if that happens. I therefore now think that I was wrong to fold here. What do you think?

Pacific $4.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

UTG: $8.28 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 23, 3B: 4, AF: 4.0, Hands: 81
Hero (UTG+1): $5.57 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 15, 3B: 8, AF: 4.3, Hands: 656
MP1: $4.22 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 52
MP2: $4.55 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 21, 3B: 3, AF: 1.8, Hands: 81
CO: $0.90 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 9, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 74
BTN: $2.27 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 13, 3B: 4, AF: 5.5, Hands: 53
SB: $6.50 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 0.9, Hands: 147
BB: $0.72 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 23, 3B: 4, AF: 4.0, Hands: 81

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is UTG+1 with Q :club: A :diamond:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.16, MP1 calls $0.16, 5 folds

Flop: ($0.38) J :diamond: 8 :heart: T :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.19, MP1 raises to $0.42, Hero calls $0.23

Turn: ($1.22) 7 :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $0.56, Hero folds

Final Pot: $1.22
MP1 wins $0.56
(Rake: $0.07)


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5 replies

I call on flop but on turn I give up too.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Why fold vs that small bet? Why call flop then?


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FlashDavin
Joined: 25.10.2011

We get great odds to call on the turn here, I think it's a must. We likely take his stack on the river if we hit.


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Thr only good card to get his stak will be a K. I don;t think that that villain is that dumb to go all in on a straight board if the 9 hits. If you think that your overs are still good on that turn then it is ok to call there.


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xenomorphic
Joined: 29.12.2010

regardless of your overs it's a call. you need <25% equity here. you basically have it anyway, but you also get some implied odds which helps your situation. don't fold the turn


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