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99 set , but flush OTR

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2reac
Joined: 10.04.2014

Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2723233
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $21.14 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 2,5, Hands: 76
CO: $29.41 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 3,7, Hands: 1240
BTN: $48.05 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 2,2, Hands: 2955
Hero (SB): $34.26 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 3,1, Hands: 108908
BB: $25.00 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 22, 3B: 8, AF: 2,6, Hands: 10449

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with 9 :spade: 9 :diamond:
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 5 :heart: 8 :spade: 9 :heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.92, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2.08

Turn: ($7.50) K :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $5.50, BB calls $5.50

River: ($18.50) J :heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $15.75, Hero folds

What do you think about my line? Villain has 60% bet vs missed and I think on this board he will bet any draw or made hand and x/raise is better than cbet.
The R card is very bad . It completes a lot of draws and I don`t think he will bluff often enough to make a call profitable.


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4 replies
mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

another option just to bet the flop, he might raise the draws or some bluffs himself and we can get it in on flop or turn and stop him seeing three cards if he does


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muel294
Joined: 06.06.2009

I prefer the x/raise line here OTF, especially since you have his bet vs missed c-bet stat with reliable sample of hands. Plus it means that when we check we are not always check folding. Everything else seems great to me : flop sizing, turn sizing. As you say river is horrible. I don't expect to get bluffed here, especially when he bombs the river after you have already shown such strength OTF and Turn.

NH :f_thumbsup:


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

The alternative is to make a smallish river bet yourself. That all but eliminates the risk of being bluffed out and some worse hands will call. But if your read says he isn't bluffing often enough, then check-fold is fine of course.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I like the small bet/fold on river too. If you are going for the check on river than it is x/fold.


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