[Zoom] T9o value bet sizing

i dont see myself folding here, sorry
I am thinking vs what opponent can i fold here and i did not find one.

What do I beat after a shove vs almost potsize river bet?

Its NL10 so this is 99.99% of the times a value shove. So then the question is which weaker value hands will he shove here?

88/44 are the most realistic ones. It's weird for him to not cbet JJ on the flop, and weirder still for him to not cbet 77 and yet call on the turn.

He's so few value combos you only need him to have 5-6 bluffs or lesser value hands to call profitably, right? Do you think he'd be capable of doing this with A4 or 65? I think his line with those would make sense.

To answer your actual question I like your river sizing.

what is your vpip and wtsd ?
i suspect you fold too much!
WTSD should be around 25 if you play a 23vpip
WTSD should be a bit higher if you play tigheter

44 is only 1combo. 88-77 are more possible than JJ.

I don't know what the right decision is, but I lean strongly towards a call. The reason is that he doesn't need to do this with many A4 (for value) to make this a mathematical call. I doubt that it is his game plan to do this with exactly 4 of the eight possible A4 combos, but I take it as a good random measure of his possible fishiness. Some fish would do this with all 4X. You might be against one of them, or an ordinary maniac. Even AA is not unheard of. You may also be against a generic slowplayer. Then you are screwed. Call and find out. I think it is profitable on average. Then take a note, and the next hand will be easier.

Another factor is that it is a blind war 100 bb deep. IIt is supposed to be aggressive. I don't like bluffing and drawing to a gutshot on a paired board, then hitting it to just fold. You are obviously repping a 4 or an 8 and he might not believe you.

Also, since the concept of "value" here is kind of blurred (A4 absolutely definitely has value enough to raise OTR, whether it is weirdly played or not), the straight is just too strong "bluff catcher" to fold.

Another thing to note: Your straight is very well disguised. He does not put you on that hand at all.

What he puts you on doesnt matter unless you have a reason to believe he can read hands. Some people just spaz they dont have real ranges just tendencies. Some people legitimately don't even take notice of the community cards.

Readless and statless I would call probably depends on his timing for the streets, its probably pretty close. So call find out he slowplays make a note and exploit him since his range will be capped for a lot of lines.
Maybe dont cbet.

Originally posted by Psderrr
What he puts you on doesnt matter unless you have a reason to believe he can read hands.

Ah yeah true good point.

Originally posted by Psderrr
Some people just spaz they dont have real ranges just tendencies.

Agreed yeah uh huh.

Originally posted by Psderrr
Some people legitimately don't even take notice of the community cards.

lolwut

At nl5 go to showdown against nits some literally just bet the strength of their hand preflop on every street oblivious to the board. Every player has away of thinking thats coherent to them, they arent going to think like you or a poker player if their fish.

I have ak I must bet bet bet.

LOL, wach this video and you wont be sad for folding this.
At example 5, double2 shows a similar spot like you fold here.

The main thing we should consider is this- does the shove after our big value bet on river on a paired board means he has a fullhouse?