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Overpair vs donk on the river

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Volrath89
Joined: 23.07.2008

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($5.02)
BB ($5.05)
UTG ($1.90)
UTG+1 ($5.05)
UTG+2 ($5)
MP1 ($5.22)
Hero ($5)
BTN ($4.93)

Dealt to Hero K♠ K♥

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, SB calls $0.13, fold

FLOP ($0.35) Q♦ 2♣ 3♦

SB checks, Hero bets $0.22, SB calls $0.22

TURN ($0.79) Q♦ 2♣ 3♦ 9♣

SB checks, Hero bets $0.57, SB calls $0.57

RIVER ($1.93) Q♦ 2♣ 3♦ 9♣ 8♣

SB bets $1.50, Hero ???

Villain is a 20/8 on 25 hands. A bit fishy, but not so terrible.

I think his line is so strong, I actually feared something like A♣Q♣ or Q♣J♣. But I wouldn't be surprised if he showed me 22,33 or 99 here. He would never lead so big on the river with KQ (and KQ is very unlikely since I hold two kings) or AQ; nor I think he would play a busted diamonds draw this way, he looks kind of passive so far.

So, is a fold reasonable here?


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6 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Calling 2 streets and leading river doesn't seem like a bluff. It looks like he hit his flush. Or 22/33 but why lead river to a card that completes :club:FD? Fold is ok imo.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

x/c flop and turn and solid donk on river when str and flush complete - I fold. It is strong on nl5.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Yeah, this is usually a very strong line, especially with that sizing. A good reg could do it with a busted :diamond: flushdraw, but this guy is probably not a good reg. I believe that a fold is optimal.


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Ales851
Joined: 16.07.2012

I agree that fold is standard here.


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mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

+1 x/c x/c donk = strong

even on stupid runouts that it doesn't make sense and he's not repping etc... it's just strong in general


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

There will be times when villain will show you some stupid hand in this spot but in most cases our over pair is no good.


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