PLO25 ZOOM KK47ss

FFS, I replied a LOOOONG post but it was lost due to login problems. Damn!

Preflop you have equity edge, but the problem is how to realize it postflop. If opponents have ranges of 25% and 40%, you have around 40% equity and they both have 30%. Here is your avg. flop equity distribution:

As you can see you are in a really good shape (over 60% equity) only under 15% of the times. Rest of the times you don't really know where you stand. That is one reason why I would just call preflop. You have good position postflop if you just call, but not that great if you are preflop aggressor.

On the flop your pot sized bet is really unbalanced. Your bet screams "I have a hand! I am committed!" which means that no one is going to raise lightly. Once called, you have 2 nut outs. Spades help you, but still you are beat with Ace high flush. Any Ace is bad for you, and 3-T completes straight. J and Q are sort of safe, but they might give any 9xxx hand easily 2 pairs. So about 1/5 times the turn is something you like and 4/5 times it is not. After the bet you are facing SPR 1 with a hand that 80% of the times have to check back (giving opponent a free shot to make a better hand) or shove and wonder if it is for value or for bluffing.

On the river the valuebet is really thin. To give the answer if you can valuebet it or not, you have to give opponent a range. And to have a river range, you have to do preflop, flop and turn ranges first. As I am such a nice guy, I will do it for you this time (this time only ):

Preflop: I give him RFI 25%, excluding 3bet oop 6% and all AAxx hands.
Flop: I think he is raising any 2 pairs and sets, so those are excluded from his range. In his calling range he has all the flush draws, any 6xxx, any 9xxx and any OESD and wraps.
Turn: His check doesn't define his range as he could check his whole range.
River: Same thing, he could check his whole range.

So on the river his range distribution is this:

A: full house 11,6%
B: nut flush: 19%
C: weaker flush: 20,5%
D: straight: 7,2%
E: the rest: 41,7%

We don't care about E. His continuing range is A-D. Out of that range A & B is 53% (we lose) and C & D is 47% (we win). To be able to valuebet his worse range needs to be over 50% of his continuing range. Now it is not (even when we assume he is always going to call with straight on paired AND flushed board) so your bet doesn't work as a valuebet.

So river is a check, although betting is a marginal mistake.

Thank you for great explanation!

On the flop that was exactly what was i thinkin: "I am commited!". So pot sized bet is a mistake ? What is the ideal bet sizing there ? ( My main domain is FLHE so bet sizing is kinda a new thing for me )

My idea was to pot bet every hit and check weak / mediocre and air ( maybe add some air with a blocker to the pot sized bet as a bluff ).