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3handed on Unibet: trips river decision

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Trommelboy
Joined: 08.11.2009

Ladies and gentlemen

I mostly post on the dutch forums but well, let's say the community's dead.
Anyhow, I'd like some feedback from you lads. I know, the HH is hard to read, but it's Unibet...
You know... HUDless and no way to copy/paste the HH except for taking screenshots.

Anyway, villain is a passive fish who almost never takes an aggressive line.
However, on the flop he may c/minraise "for information" as fish do to see if his 8 or 7 is any good. That's why I call and decide to go to showdown as cheaply as possible. Turn is great card for me, so easy call. I don't know if I can raise the turn. I probably only will get raised or called by better I guess.
River is weird. He bets quit big for his standards. 3/4e pot on river is mostly nutsy. Depends on what villain sees as nuts.

I give him this range on the river: 88,55,AQs,KQs,Q2s+,85s,AQo,KQo,Q9o+.
Against this range I have 45,59% equity.
The pot is 14,88€ on the river. I need to call 6,42€.

Pot odds wise I need around 43% to be correct. Which is just a bit too little to be +EV longterm wise.
What do you guys think?


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8 replies
Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

After you call the river, the pot will be €21,40, so you are investing €6,42 into €21,40, which means that you need to win this pot in 6,42/21,40*100 = 30% of cases to make your call profitable. If you think that his range is 88,55,AQs,KQs,Q2s+,85s,AQo,KQo,Q9o+, you can call, but I wouldn't say that the passive player has so many weaker Qx when he decides to be aggressive. Hared to fold the trips, but against someone who is normally passive, maybe it's the best move with QJ.


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Trommelboy
Joined: 08.11.2009

I counted his riverbet already in the pot mate. , I have to call 6€ into 14


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Originally posted by Trommelboy
I counted his riverbet already in the pot mate. , I have to call 6€ into 14

On the river we have €8,56 in the pot and he bets €6,42, so our pot odds are €6,42/(€8,56+€6,42+€6,42)*100% = €6,42/€21,40*100% = 30%


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Trommelboy
Joined: 08.11.2009

Which would make my call profitable long term given the range I give villlain.
wouldn't be so happy calling though.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

The problem is we can face a better Qx there.


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Trommelboy
Joined: 08.11.2009

Originally posted by nitrol
The problem is we can face a better Qx there.

no shit?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Why do you post a hand if you are generally aware of that "no shit" situation?


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Gerardus
Joined: 05.11.2009

To my experience: when a passive fish suddenly become aggressive (especially at three row and a big bet on the river) he almost has a very strong hand. I guess that the fish had 55, 88, Q5 or Q8 (or even 77!) and rarely another hand like Q with a weak kicker. So, i would also have folded here, no matter what the equity will be.


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