A6s 8QT no bdfd - cbet or not?

On this board you should have a lot of mid pair + backdoors and gutshots to bluff cbet, so A♣:6♣: could be x/f imo. With bd GS 'm also not cbetting. Not sure if overbet is needed here. I believe he would bet most of his good hands otf. So, on turn he is left with some sort of mid / low pair, gutshot or nothing. So 2 normal bets should be fine to make him fold hand like 22-77, 78.

I would check/fold this flop by default, but I would cbet only if would have a read that he folds too much to flop cbets (like 60% or more). If we would have a backdoor flushdraw, I think we could cbet by default. When we check and he checks back, we can fire any turn and river by default because it will be auto-profitable situation at these limits.

This board is not a kind of board we will be cbetting much.
When villain x, we can fire on turn.

I would x turn as well, he will x back Tx, 8x OTF and he is not folding that OTT plus your A high has some sort of showdown value. So I really don't like your overbet on the turn, you bluffing with almost zero equity vs his calling range.

Originally posted by LuckyManFromLT
I would x turn as well, he will x back Tx, 8x OTF and he is not folding that OTT plus your A high has some sort of showdown value. So I really don't like your overbet on the turn, you bluffing with almost zero equity vs his calling range.

I constructed a range, and we can see that about 30% of preflop range is 3rd or worse pair.
Since he did not bet the flop, we can remove TP+, which was 32%.

And there are 2nd pairs and draws - about 40% which will not fold to turn bet.
So if we remove the TP+, we got ratio 40:30 of hands which are not folding and hands which are folding on turn. So if 70 is now 100 %, then 30 is 42% - so we have 42 % fold equity on turn. Also when his draws will not improve, we will win vs them at showdown.
Of course if he bets with busted draw we will not win the showdown, but then we have to have some bluffcatchers. Or bluff vs busted draws w A high?

So I like betting turn.

Actually now also remembered - most of the draws will bet the flop, so there on the turn are mainly 2nd and 3rd pairs. So I like betting turn even more.

Probably no need to overbet because 2nd pairs might not fold, if he hand reads at least a bit or is calling station. I was experimenting with those overbets:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($4.06)
BB ($5.10)
UTG ($33.81)
Hero ($5.07)
BTN ($5.30)

Dealt to Hero J♦ K♣

fold, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.37) Q♣ 7♥ 8♣

Hero checks, BTN checks

TURN ($0.37) Q♣ 7♥ 8♣ 2♠

Hero bets $0.58, BTN calls $0.58

RIVER ($1.53) Q♣ 7♥ 8♣ 2♠ 7♦

Hero bets $2.02, BTN calls $2.02

BTN shows T♠ T♦
(Pre 57%, Flop 72.1%, Turn 86.4%)

Hero shows J♦ K♣
(Pre 43%, Flop 27.9%, Turn 13.6%)

BTN wins $5.34

♦ smart. So when we have the nuts on turn and did not bet the flop - we can easily overbet for value because they might think that its a bluff