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AA99s interesting spot with math inside !

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Janosikgdy
Joined: 06.05.2007

Poker Stars $5.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 4 players - View hand 2817386
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $13.80 - VPIP: 44, PFR: 3, 3B: 3, AF: 1,5, Hands: 173
Hero (BTN): $5.55
SB: $7.75 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 3,0, Hands: 611
BB: $5.52 - VPIP: 41, PFR: 23, 3B: 5, AF: 2,8, Hands: 253

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with A :club: 9 :spade: 9 :diamond: A :diamond:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.17, SB calls $0.15, BB calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.51) T :heart: Q :diamond: 9 :club: (3 players)
SB bets $0.39, BB calls $0.39, Hero calls $0.39

Turn: ($1.68) 5 :diamond: (3 players)
SB bets $1.30, BB folds, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.28) Q :spade: (2 players)
SB bets $4.11, Hero calls $3.69 all in

Spoiler

Final Pot: $11.66
Hero shows A :club: 9 :spade: 9 :diamond: A :diamond:
SB shows T :club: Q :club: 8 :heart: J :club:
SB wins $11.21
(Rake: $0.45)

Hey,

Flop seems okey, no need to raise, turn also we picked up more equity and call is fine.
What do you think about river? Call or fold? We beat straight, and better fh beats us. I am not sure if he would shove straight on river, but with this spr maybe sometimes he will shove, and i got decent odds to call.
I also dont think that playing aggresive set on board like this is a standard. I am not sure what is his ratio between fh and straights. Of course it sucks if he has straight and full house, but this case should happen so rarly, that probably i have to call river ?

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.28 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - TdQh9c5dQc
PLAYER_1 ((TQ)!(TT,QQ)),(TT,QQ),KJ,KQJT
PLAYER_2 adac9s9d
18523 trials (exhaustive)

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.28 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - TdQh9c5dQc
PLAYER_1 ((TQ)!(TT,QQ)),(TT,QQ),KJ,KQJT
PLAYER_2 adac9s9d
18523 trials (exhaustive)

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.28 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - TdQh9c5dQc
PLAYER_1 ((TQ)!(TT,QQ)),(TT,QQ),KJ,KQJT
PLAYER_2 adac9s9d
18523 trials (exhaustive)


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4 replies
Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

The problem is that you don't define his preflop range at all. So now syntax QT includes hands like QTTT and QT22r which aren't in his range.

I looked this hand in PokerJuice:

Preflop range for SB: First in 20%, excluding 3bet oop 6%.
Flop he donks with TT+, JJ with Q,T or 9 and J with QT,Q9 or T9.
Turn he barrells with same range.
On the river he has TT+ 27%, KJ,J8 67% and other 6%.

If we change his flop and turn ranges to TT+, he has TT+ 26% and KJ,J8 74%.

So either way he has a lot more straights in his range than full houses on the river. The question is would he shove his straight when you hand looks a lot like full house or air.


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CPallo
Joined: 12.04.2012

Math... :f_ugly:

Anyway, I think this hand is quite nasty as we never have nuts when we make our full house on river. Turn we could hit a flush, but we might still have reverse implied odds for turn call.


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Pistoleroo
Joined: 06.02.2015

You can do alot of math on hands but if they potshove the river at the micros they usually have the nuts. KJxx will c/c or c/f on river.

May sound nitty but even the turn call seems already questionable. Because of the reverse implied odds. He is repping a very strong hand. Also when the diamond hits will the villain pay off?


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

If opponent range is KJ on the turn, then the call is super easy. Don't even need any implied odds.


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