Hi guys, the member KoeNe4U posted an interesting hand that is a nice example for training your Poker skills:
Originally posted by KoeNe4U
PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4BTN: 121.38 BB (VPIP: 28.25, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 8.77, Hands: 325)
Hero (SB): 162.68 BB
BB: 120.24 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
UTG: 102.88 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
MP: 235.46 BB (VPIP: 27.39, PFR: 23.37, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 406)
CO: 104.1 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 9)Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♥ Q♥
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BTN calls 6.5 BB
Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) K♦ A♣ 8♣
Hero bets 10 BB, BTN calls 10 BBTurn: (39 BB, 2 players) 2♠
Hero bets 26 BB, BTN calls 26 BBRiver: (91 BB, 2 players) 6♥
Hero bets 87.5 BB, BTN calls 76.38 BB and is all-inSpoiler
Hero shows 9♥ Q♥ (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 39%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
BTN shows A♦ J♦ (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 61%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)
BTN wins 238.76 BB
We can ask here a bunch of interesting questions and try to find some answers, so we have a better grasp of what is going on next time. This is how you get better as a Poker player.
- What hands should BU call down?
- What hands can SB profitably triple barrel for value? (AKA what is the worst value shove on the river?)
- What type of bluff hands should SB be looking to use on the river?
- Is this a spot where people are overbluffing/underbluffing or overcalling/undercalling?
To try to answer these questions we don't need fancy tools to get an approximate answer.
So, let's do it by steps together
STEP 1 - estimate pre flop ranges
Let's say SB 3bet depolarized with around 18% range, something like this:
Let's also assume BU is calling something like this:
These might not be perfect ranges but it's the first step we have to make.
STEP 2 - Figure out BU "balanced" call down range:
To do this we apply more or less the "minimal defence frequency" to the 3 streets and see what comes up. This is far from a perfect way to figure out ranges but it gives us some useful results.
I don't think in this board BU should be raising anything, so this makes it a bit easier to do.
BU sees this flop with 168 combos. Against a half pot size bet he needs to defend around 2/3 of his range (because SB risks 10 to win 30, so his bluffs need to work around 1/3 of the time, so BU should call around 2/3). So we need to pick around 110 combos to continue on the flop. This is 108: 88,AQs-A2s,K8s+,QTs+,Q8s,JTs,J8s,T8s,98s,87s,Qc9c,Jc9c,Tc9c,7c6c,AQo-AJo,KQo
So we call flop with every pair, every FD and every gut shot. Very intuitive I think.
We see turn with 107 combos. Villain bets 2/3 pot, so we need to call around 60% of our range, so around 64 combos. These are 67 combos: 88,AQs-A2s,KQs,K8s,KcJc,QcJc,KcTc,QcTc,JcTc,Kc9c,Qc9c,Jc9c,Tc9c,AQo-AJo
So we call every Ax and FDs. We fold Kx (except the ones in clubs) and we fold gutshots (except in clubs).
We see river with 66 combos, against a ~83% betsize we need to defend around 55%, so ~33 combos (of the hands that can beat a bluff, we discount our busted draws)
So BU's "balanced" call down range should be around this: 88,AQs-AJs,A8s,A6s,A2s,K8s,AQo-AJo
So, the borderline hand to call 3 streets is AJ (without getting into blocker considerations).
STEP 3 - Given BU's call down range establish SB value shove range
If you use Equilab's option "hand range calculator" you will find that the worst value bet SB has is K8s. Against that range we gave BU AQ has an equity of ~45%, so not really a value shove.
SB's value shove range on the river: AdAh,AdAs,AhAs,KhKs,KhKc,KsKc,8d8h,8d8s,8h8s,AhKh,AsKs,Ad8d,Ah8h,As8s,Kh8h,Ks8s,Ad6d,As6s,Ad2d,Ah2h,AdKh,AdKs,AdKc,AhKs,AhKc,AsKh,AsKc
You can also now try to give him some bluffs to balanced these 27 value combos (bluffs should be a little less than half the value combos, so around 12 bluff combos), which would probably mean some frequency of QJ/JT/QT)
STEP 4 - compare your findings to your pratical expectations
Do we expect BU to call down with a wider or tighter range than the one mentioned? In other words, do we expect villain to call down A9s, A7s, maybe all Ax? Do we expect him to fold AJ/AQ?
Based on how sure you are of these assumptions you could adjust. Like if you think this particular villain will love to hero fold AJ/AQ, then it might make sense to be triple barreling a decent amount of QJ/JT/QT combos.
In any case, our barreling should always have some sort of draw and in this flop I don't think it's true that SB can bet full range, unless maybe with a very small sizing plan. So Qh9h is a very clear check/fold flop and a very clear check/fold turn. I don't hate the shove river.
How do these findings collide with your intuitions?
