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NL25 SH AQo river value bet? Sizing?

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caltabiano
Joined: 09.03.2007

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 130.96 BB
SB: 79 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 102.84 BB
MP: 194.84 BB
CO: 185.52 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♦ A♠

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) 6♥ A♣ 9♦
MP bets 4.56 BB, Hero calls 4.56 BB

Turn: (16.52 BB, 2 players) T♠
MP bets 10.48 BB, Hero calls 10.48 BB

River: (37.48 BB, 2 players) 9♥
MP checks, Hero bets 18 BB, MP calls 18 BB

Spoiler

Hero shows Q♦ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Nines)
(Pre 58%, Flop 63%, Turn 0%)
MP shows 7♣ 8♣ (Straight, Ten High)
(Pre 42%, Flop 37%, Turn 100%)
MP wins 70.16 BB
Rake paid 3.32 BB

I'm not playing w/ a HUD, so no stats on the player, but as far as I have observed him, he's a pretty solid regular, not very aggressive, as far as I have seen him in sd, he's got a pretty solid strong range.

So, up to the river it's pretty standard I guess. On the river, I think I have to bet, but I'm not quite sure, because he could easily have TT, 99, AA, 87s, AK. Although he wouldn't always check them, I think he's gonna do it from time to time. I only really have value against AJ, maybe some low suited A.

What do you guys think? Bet small, check back? Shove :f_ugly:?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

it boils down to whether
a. villain checks stronger hands here
AK, full houses and straights
b. whether villain bets twice and checkcalls with worse hands
AJ A8s A7s?

i think we should check here, a smart player will realize that it is -EV to checkcall the river with AJ because he is not beating any hand in our range unless we call twice with a hand like T8 and turn it into a bluff


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