NL20 Speed - Call river with nut high

Mmmmm, I am not a fan of bullying here.
On turn I see this:
MP2 35.09% 35.09% 0.00% AdKd
MP3 64.91% 64.91% 0.00% AQs-AJs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, AQo

I am not sure that the 4 combos that you beat are the only ones to bet on river.

Well I'd remove Th9h and replace it with T9s, so that's three more combos. Not all of those listed will call a turn bet, either; many Jx may fold to two barrels. I think you're missing some AXhh there, too.

If he reaches the river with that range you assigned (but with T9s instead of T9hh), though, let's say he bets his AQ, checks back any other one pair he reaches the river with, and bets all his zero-equity hands and two pair. That's 12 value combos and 7 bluff combos.

AQ , AJ are there in my range... AThh is not, but it is 1 more combo.

Nice hand imo. He should have enough AT, T9s, 89s, KT. Plus, I don't believe he is betting that often hand like AJ otr. Sets should be raising often flop or turn.

Well played. Many busted draws on his range and good value hands would play different.
So thats a thin value bet for him plus hands that have missed.

Originally posted by VaskataBuci
Nice hand imo. He should have enough AT, T9s, 89s, KT. Plus, I don't believe he is betting that often hand like AJ otr. Sets should be raising often flop or turn.

He definitely is taking a free showdown w this hand, imo.

Yeah I figured if he checked back I'm losing the pot almost always (apart from when he has ATdd/AThh maybe), but I also thought that I didn't have enough fold equity against his one-pair hands to make a bet myself, so check calling seemed the best play.

Originally posted by nitrol
AQ , AJ are there in my range... AThh is not, but it is 1 more combo.

I don't know what that has to do with it. He can't have AQhh or AJhh; I said your range was missing some AXhh. He 3bets those often preflop but a loose reg definitely has some suited aces in his button flatting range. Anyway, even given your range his value:bluff ratio OTR is still worth me calling if we assume he bluffs almost all busted draws and checks back less than top pair, which is probably not a terrible assumption.

MJ, My range has all AQs, has all AJs ,and missing the ATs. Other Ax I do not feel he has there...

Yeah I can see that but my reply never mentioned AQ/AJ and yet you brought it up so I assumed you had misread something.

I also think it's a mistake to assume he only has AT+ when he's a 33/25 and likely has enough stats on me to know I'm on the looser side as well but it's not important for this hand.

Well, I thought that for these 72 hands he hasn't figured you out.

p.s. Isn't AJ a better bluff catcher?

He knows as much about me as I know about him, so he probably has 72 hands on me playing 29/24 or so which puts me on the looser end of the spectrum for a reg at these stakes.

Originally posted by nitrol
Well, I thought that for these 72 hands he hasn't figured you out.

p.s. Isn't AJ a better bluff catcher?

Absolutely, imo.

Originally posted by MJPerry
I also think it's a mistake to assume he only has AT+ when he's a 33/25 and likely has enough stats on me to know I'm on the looser side as well but it's not important for this hand.

He can surely have lower sc drawing to the same dead flush. 33 vpip include all of those types of holding.

river is pretty straight forward, flop and turn should be your concern (i.e. sizing). turn XR seems pretty good actually, snap XC this river to stack him with A hi too, nice tilt value

I think turn should be either check/raise or overbet. I'd check/raise against players who seem to be more aggressive and overbet against more passive and ABC regs.
River seems close to me. As you said, people don't valuebet rivers enough and also you were betting small so he will be getting to the river with some draws. On the other hand, people also don't bluff rivers enough, this sizing can be value and also you block his diamond BDFDs. Still I think calling should be fine against this guy.