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To value bet or not OTR in a 4bet pot

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kevin2001
Joined: 14.02.2009

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $12.45 (124.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $50.64 (506.4 bb)
UTG: $12.62 (126.2 bb)
MP: $17.15 (171.5 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $10.63 (106.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K K
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.25, SB raises to $0.70, Hero raises to $1.65, BTN folds, SB calls $0.95

Flop: ($3.55) 3 J 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.70, SB calls $1.70

Turn: ($6.95) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3

River: ($12.95) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

Is this a clear value bet? Villain is a 21/18 over 71 hands w a 3bet of 18.8% (6/32) What is villains range for calling the cold 4bet? Thanks!


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5 replies
MJPerry
Joined: 03.10.2011

I think this is a check. Both JJ/QQ got there and no other worse hand gets to the river and calls another bet apart from AhQh.


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xin1575
Joined: 22.10.2015

It's close, but I don't think you can get much of a value bet here. Villain is 3betting a bit wide especially considering it could be a blinds steal. I do think you should be making your 4bet a little bigger, like around $2.00.

As played, you are clearing repping AA, KK, QQ, and AK so what is villain calling you down with? A set is very likely to just call you all the way down and raise the river (if you bet). AJ might if he's not a thinking player, but I think it's unrealistic to get much value on the river here. I'd just check.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

The strange thing is that the size of villain's 3 bet is not big, tho he will be OOP. I think he will do this with QQ-99, or even smaller pairs. I do not know if AK will just call...
As I always say, you can always take the safe route and check.
Plus you will get valuable info on villain. :)


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Check it behind and see the showdown.
MJ made a good point, QQ-JJ are good possible holdings given the action pre... so it enhances the checking back benefits.


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oI2ange
Joined: 21.07.2015

Really gross spot. It kind of depends how 'bad' villain is, in the sense that some bad nit regulars will open shove JJ/QQ on the river here (even though it makes zero sense for their range). If he's balanced in the least, he'll obviously check this river with all sets for the most part. I think it's probably a check on the river- I don't think AJ is calling and neither is a pocket pair (99/TT/etc).


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