2 hands, 2 different situations but both top pair with bet OTR

Hand 1 I would fold with TPGK when flush completes and villain bets pot. Hand 2 I would call because villain's play doesn't make much sense and he bets only half pot. Maybe he has 9x or 33 sometimes but I think he can do this with weaker hands too.

Edit: depends on villain too.. Hand 1 board would be very good to bluff since you check river but villain seems quite passive.

H1 - I am folding. We do not have 3 streets of value, especially when board is paired and flush completes. Plus villain's bet isbig.

H2 - I am calling vs the 1/2 donk. Top 2P is a quality enough hand to do that.

Hand 1:
I don't mind checking the flop. You don't need to protect and you get just 2 streets of value anyways. By betting flop and turn you often valuetown yourself vs. better Qx. As played you just have to fold the river. He can bet with a slowplayed set, AQ or just got there with the backdoor flush.

To the math of things: He bets pot, that means you have to be good at least 33% of the time. Thus, if you find 33% bluffs in his range you have a breakeven call. Always keep the pot odds in mind. As you can probably imagine its almost impossible for him to show up with any bluffs on this rather dry board. Additionally pot-bets after calling 2 streets are usually very strong, up to NL50 (as far as I experienced it). I made a lot of these calls and always looked into the nuts

Hand 2:
General Rule for Fish: When they x/c twice and then lead the river that means they are usually very strong. You hold top pair top kicker, but the problem is that fish usually do not donk the river (actually never) with a weaker Q. You often see 9x there, or slowplayed KK+ - That said, I would definitely muck the river without hesitation.

Hand 1, I would go for x/c flop. If it goes w a check behind, than bet turn and maybe river.
The thing is we dont have 3 streets of value, so we can give up to bet one street and make pot control, while we also let villain make his bluffs.

By betting like u did, u build a pot that doenst match w the strength of ur hand.

Thanks guys. I called the second hand and indeed that guy showed K-9.

The problem I have with the 1st hand though, is that this guy shows pretty solid stats (although for small sample). I could be out levelling myself, however, could it be that he knows that I need to figure out whether his range was polarized (I did it too with success that very same evening and took note of the player that he probably can lay down top pair because I strongly believe that he had it)? I made the following perception of villain's range:

Preflop range

Flop Range

Turn and River Range

River Equity

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP3    38.59%  27.94%  10.65% { QhTh }
BU     61.41%  50.76%  10.65% { Q9s+, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }

As MisterSnS has indicated, the 33% is a close one, do you agree? I also ruled out set combos. Would you have done the same?

Mmmm,

My guess for his range is:
QQ,55,22,AQs,KQs,QTs+,AcJc,KcJc,AcTc,KcTc,JcTc,Jc9c,Tc9c,9c8c,6c5c,AQo

Do you think (solid/good) opponents will call lighter OTF these days? So KJs, AJs, etc. will call more?

KcJc and AcJc can call.

Your range is probably way too optimistic. You gotta look at the positions you are in. You are opening from UTG and get called by the BTN. Hands such as QTo-QJo or Q9s do not belong in there. Additionally, just because we have over 33% vs his range (given that we use yours) doesn't mean we can call a large bet because his betting range is not equal to his overall range

My range or Hesticus's range?

Originally posted by MisterSnS
Your range is probably way too optimistic. You gotta look at the positions you are in. You are opening from UTG and get called by the BTN. Hands such as QTo-QJo or Q9s do not belong in there. Additionally, just because we have over 33% vs his range (given that we use yours) doesn't mean we can call a large bet because his betting range is not equal to his overall range

Agree. With this kind of vpip those off suited brodways doesnt look to fit in. And by betting (and evaluating the size too) narrows even more his range.

It can sound interesting, but if u did x/c flop, and continued w this line throughout the hand, the betting on all 3streets would also give a good information about villains range. He could also check behind river w this river flush, bc u represent more of them by calling.

Interesting guys. Really helpful.

Where would you target medium such as the Q9s, Q10o-QJo preflop based on villain stats and position?
Till now, the core leak in this hand is that I should have taken the line suggested by MisterSnS and Afulibador (x/c flop and perhaps take this line further down to 3 streets) because my hand isn't strong enough to get 3 streets of value, do I understand this correctly?

Yep, x/c flop for sure.
Them if it goes check check u are likely going to bet/bet turn and river.
If he bets flop, u can keep w the x/c strategy and let villain's range wide.

Originally posted by Hesticus
Interesting guys. Really helpful.

Where would you target medium such as the Q9s, Q10o-QJo preflop based on villain stats and position?
Till now, the core leak in this hand is that I should have taken the line suggested by MisterSnS and Afulibador (x/c flop and perhaps take this line further down to 3 streets) because my hand isn't strong enough to get 3 streets of value, do I understand this correctly?

A TAG MP would not have Q9s, QTo+in his calling range.
Yes, you should xc xc. If villain x - then you lead on next street.

So I can assume against a TAG, he also can call with 10-10+ on BTN just to get value from me? In addition, Q9s, QTo+ he may even 3bet light to exploit my fold to 3bet for example and take the pot down with a weaker hand to begin with?

He will call preflop TT even JJ.
Q9s,QTo+are candidates for 3bet bluff as they are right below the call range BUT there are better candidates with better blockers - AJo, ATo, KQo-KJo... Not all would be in his range but are possible.

Alright, have the picture. Thanks!

For correct preflop ranges you should check out w34z3l's walkthrough video series here on pokerstrategy. There he explains you everything you need to know. Gl on on the tables