All-in with monster draw in this spot, good or bad?

Pre Flop
6 handed, NL5
Pot = 1.4bb
Hero is MP O/R 3bb with 8♥:7♥:. CO and SB call.

Flop
A♥:6♥:9♦:
Pot = 10bb.
SPR for the smallest stack is 97/10 gives 9.7.

In Professional No-Limit Hold'Em by Flynn, Mehta and Miller, first edition page 254:
If the SPR is 10 and you are still comfortable gettin all-in, you might make a big bet on the flop, hoping either to take it down immediately or to get raised by a wide range of hands. Your plan if raised is to move all-in. If neither of these are likely, you might go for another line.

Hero has 9 unclean outs to a flush and 6 unclean outs to a straight. So 15 unclean outs with two cards to come. Hero will hit his flush or straight about 60%.
However there are somewhere 5 higher hearts. So if Hero makes his flush, he could be outdrawn especially with runner-runner hearts.
The 6 outs to the straight don't have to be discounted. Hero could even make a straight-flush.
Say Hero has a total of 10 clean outs. He then will hit his flush or straight about 40%.

Does this justify an all-in wish?
If so, you played the flop well.

Turn
A♥:6♥:9♦: . A♦:
Pot = 50bb
Effective stacks: (100 -3 -20= ) 77bb.

Villain bets again 70% pot, leaving him with 41bb in a 86bb pot.
Hero raises all-in. Villain has 41bb in a 163bb pot. Villain has great odds to call H's raise.

If Hero's outs are still clean, his chance on a flush or straight is decreased to 20%.
The board is paired so full houses destroy all Hero's hope.
The board is two toned so Hero's straight outs so a diamont on the river could outdraw Hero.

IMO hero can't even call the turnbet.

Won't 66/99/A9/A6 3b us on flop?

I also think that villain will re-raise my raise with a set of 6 or 9 OTF, because the board is so drawy. Is this a stupid thought in this spot?

Originally posted by StVatle
I also think that villain will re-raise my raise with a set of 6 or 9 OTF, because the board is so drawy. Is this a stupid thought in this spot?

To be honest, this line of consideration gets me into more trouble than any other. By assigning sensible play to your villains you start ruling out hands that have you crushed because "it wouldn't make sense to play them that way".

We need to remember that many villains are not very good players and don't understand that slowplaying 66 or 99 here isn't a great plan. For some villains "call flop, shove turn" appears to be a standard line with any set. We need to remember that just because we would not call this spot for example with A6o, who knows what the villain thinks?

I sometimes play J5s and J5o. This isn't because I think its a great hand. It's an in-joke from an IRL cashy circle. You need to be careful what hands you are automatically ruling out based on the villain's lines though.

This turn is x-f for me. Your equity is maximised on the flop. Monsterdraw is a calling hand on the turn, but that board pairing reduced your clean outs to exactly zero (as you don't have the two SF outs even of a true monsterdraw).

I don't mind getting it all in OTF but OTT when the board pairs and there is only 1 card to come I would not do it. I don't think sets and 2pair necessarily 3bet OTF. I very rarely see flop 3bets. Most of the guys like to milk us with sets and do not think about protecting their hand.

I think if you were gonna go all in, you should have done it on the flop. Now with the board pairing on the turn, there is a possibility of a full house. I think he could have 66 or 99 in this spot. He could also have A6, A9.

Ok, it make sense that I should just x-f turn actually. But if the turn was 2c or something, is all-in ok then? with this monster draw?

You cannot xf as you are IP. Just fold.
if turn was a blank with effective stacks left, you can push.

IMO the object of raising all-in on a draw is done for 2 reasons as it is a semi-bluff of sort
1st-You are hoping your opponent has fold equity and will fold to your bet. If he calls then you hope to outdraw him.
2nd-You push when you are the odd-on favorite to win.

In this hand your opponent has no fold equity on the turn so a push there is wrong by the 1st rule and you do not have pot odds to continue on the turn so you should also fold by the 2nd rule.
**If you were to push on the FLOP then you would have both the 1st rule and the 2nd rule covered so that would have been the time to do it***

Originally posted by nitrol
Won't 66/99/A9/A6 3b us on flop?

Most of thinking guys would. But we cant guarantee these hands are out of question.

StVatle, I liked ur play on the flop. Although, the result was not what we expected (shipping all in otf or villain folding).
With this new reality turn brings to us... I think its a fold.

Originally posted by Afulibador

Originally posted by nitrol
Won't 66/99/A9/A6 3b us on flop?

Most of thinking guys would. But we cant guarantee these hands are out of question.

Even the unthinking guys will want to protect them on that board... so, they are not that LIKELY.

Monster draw is in front of most hands on the flop but loses half its equity to a brick on the turn.

So shove flops but x-c turns.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by Afulibador

Originally posted by nitrol
Won't 66/99/A9/A6 3b us on flop?

Most of thinking guys would. But we cant guarantee these hands are out of question.

Even the unthinking guys will want to protect them on that board... so, they are not that LIKELY.

More villains than not at 10 will slowplay a set there to milk value. I imagine the same stands for 5 but moreso.

You will see villains in this spot call flop call turn hero shove river with sets even if obvious bigger draws made it.

Never rule out stupid unless you have a very strong reason not to.