JJ - Overpair : 2 barrels - getting shoved on river.

I think you should fold this without reads. You need a guy capable of floating to call. But it is close, I agree. You get nearly to 3.1.

I'd prefer to c/c turn c/c river with your hand as you severely narrow his range on the turn by betting.

If he checks back turn bet river with the aim of getting max value from Tx whatever number you think that is. I'd probably go with $3.33.

Given what you did I think it's close and very player dependent calling or folding wont give that big a difference in ev vs unknown.

Originally posted by jmackenzie
I'd prefer to c/c turn c/c river with your hand as you severely narrow his range on the turn by betting.

This +1. Board is dry so not many worse can call.

I'm not sure if I like that pre 3bet. A bit too loose for me. This is full ring, open raiser looks quite tight. What comes to the post flop play I agree with jmackenzie.

3Betting is not ok vs villain that folds too much preflop. This is a call, imo.

bet flop, xc turn. As played I am folding.

Indeed, raise him with medium-weak / junk hands instead of premium if he folds over 70%
With a 3bet here you eliminate quite some hands from this nit and he can easily call with QQ, AK,10-10 IMO. Not that this is his entire range but with the AI OTR I would not feel comfortable by calling even though I get almost a 3:1 here

Would be interesting to know the f3 sample size at this point. After 200 hands it might be 2 folds of 3 total opportunities which makes the stat mostly worthless.

For all we know he got 3bet twice by the blinds while stealing but continues wide IP with his normal opening range. Tough to say much about his range because of this.

Crap spot generated by the too loose too aggressive 3bet pre. I dont know if i can fold here feeling so committed but i doubt we have 25% of it.

Id say weve been trapped by a bigger OP.

Edit - thought about this while walking to get lunch. With that pfr and hand sample weve only seen the villain open about 28 pots. Of that he cant have been three bet much more than a couple of times. 3 fits and 2 folds would give the data point you mentioned.

So definitely too small a sample to be useful yet. F3 after raising is more of a 1k hands plus stat.

I agree with the sample size

It's just very difficult to get 1k+ hands @ pokerstars fullring

239 hands, prf over 12. I would say that we have seen him open around 30 hands. 5/7 folds to 3bet would be closer to 70ish than 2/3. Depending on the true sample size we might be able to exploit his high fold to 3bet but I think it is better to do it from BTN where we have absolute position. So I wouldn't 3bet this for value and usually this is a call for me. If hero 3betted because he wanted to exploit high f23bet, post-flop approach is wrong.

Originally posted by nitrol
3Betting is not ok vs villain that folds too much preflop. This is a call, imo.

+1. If we want to exploit the high ft3b we should not do it with JJ. As played, fold river.

Yes. If villain folds to 3b 40-50 then we can 3b JJ.

I'm not sure it 3betting JJ is so terrible. If villain has over 70% fold to 3bet, it is auto-profit situation and we could basically 3bet anything. We could expand our bluff range and start 3betting more suited connectors etc but I think 3betting with depolarized range is not that bad. We just have to play it carefully postflop. Not like hero did in this hand.

It is not terrible but still we must win more with a call vs his entire range.

The reason we should call is more to do with the power of the hand, its ability to improve very cleanly, and our inability to know where the heck we stand postflop out of position on jack free flops after 3betting and narrowing the villain's continuing range. That and we have to auto fold to 4bets.

Again this sample size is way too narrow to start playing for autoprofit on 3, and if we are, why do it with a strong, easy to play postflop in 2bet pots flatting hand. By taking on the autoprofit situation and attempting to exploit the narrow read we turn JJ into a complete bluff. Better have had 9To. At least if they continue and we hit they'll never see the hammer coming.

Heck JJ doesn't even block part of his continuing range like some bad broadway hands would.

I know that we can't start to play for autoprofit with this sample size. I was just thinking that IF we do that it wouldn't really matter if it is JJ or 72o. But you are right that JJ doesn't have blockers so it is not as good as other hands. And if we do it with 9To villain will never see it coming

LOL,

came across a similar situation in review of last session : I donk here for value from overcards/flushdraws and don't want him getting a freecard.

On Turn I bet again in case het floated flop with the draws. I expect to have lot's of fold equity here : normally only hands that beat me would call here => River I would c/f.

but If i don't bet T, I give a freecard and can be bluffed of the pot if he would bet T with his draws. So I want to execute my fold equity here.

what do you think ?

BTN: $21.24 (VPIP: 16.84, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 95)
SB: $8.15 (VPIP: 14.60, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.60, Hands: 512)
BB: $10.00
UTG: $4.30 (VPIP: 28.89, PFR: 8.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
UTG+1: $10.42 (VPIP: 15.69, PFR: 9.95, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 792)
MP: $7.34 (VPIP: 14.46, PFR: 12.40, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 244)
MP+1: $10.00 (VPIP: 20.80, PFR: 15.20, 3Bet Preflop: 4.08, Hands: 126)
MP+2: $5.44 (VPIP: 51.52, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)
Hero (CO): $10.00

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J♠ J♥

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.25, BTN raises to $1.00, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.15, 2 players) 7♣ 2♠ 9♣
Hero bets $1.12, BTN calls $1.12

Turn: ($4.39, 2 players) 5♥
Hero bets $2.30, BTN raises to $11.09, fold

I'm really worried if you think that this hand is similar to the one posted above..
In this hand preflop is standard.
What hands do you not 4bet pre but donk on this kind of flops? What hands do you think villain is calling when you donk in 3bet pot?
I don't like the donk here. I think you can x/c one or two streets.
As played I would x/f turn.

Originally posted by la55i

What hands do you not 4bet pre but donk on this kind of flops? What hands do you think villain is calling when you donk in 3bet pot?

1. JJ-77 ?
2. FDs, OPs

I would like to turn your attention to the size of the 3B.
XC seems right.

That line in the 2nd hand is how to play a set there provokes a shove from QQ+