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AQ - trips on turn when flush comes in

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schelleXL
Joined: 05.05.2011

Hello,

Reg bets 3.5 BB UTG+1 - pré std call for me with AQo
flop = good, no need to raise because FD are rare here only K♠:Q♠: is logical.
turn : looks good. He bets again so range

AQs, KQs, KK+, 99, 55, , AQo => 64/35 favorite @ Turn.
But if we raise we what are we representing ? Qx, FH, flush.
Can I get value ? only from KQ and maybe KK+ ?

river is actually a bad card for me : 28/72 dog at this moment.
but for this sizing it's okay to call I guess

MP+1: $10.66 (VPIP: 16.41, PFR: 11.52, 3Bet Preflop: 2.52, Hands: 1,063)
CO: $9.53 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)
BTN: $11.74 (VPIP: 52.27, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 44)
SB: $10.00 (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 8.13, 3Bet Preflop: 3.24, Hands: 781)
Hero (BB): $10.55
UTG: $12.12 (VPIP: 16.26, PFR: 7.72, 3Bet Preflop: 2.04, Hands: 250)
UTG+1: $10.00 (VPIP: 17.83, PFR: 14.01, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 158)
MP: $10.00 (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 20)

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A♠ Q♦

fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.35, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 5♠ Q♥ 9♠
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.47, Hero calls $0.47

Turn: ($1.69, 2 players) Q♠
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

River: ($3.89, 2 players) K♥
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Spoiler

UTG+1 shows 5♦ 5♥ (Full House, Fives full of Queens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 94%, Turn 84%)
Hero mucks A♠ Q♦ (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 46%, Flop 6%, Turn 16%)
UTG+1 wins $6.58


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2 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think we should fold OTR.

Pre std
Flop std
OTT we improve to trips. With your As and Qs on the board it makes it less likely villain has a flush draw so I would call here.

OTR is kind of tricky. Board is paired, flush is still possible and JT makes a straight and villain bets less than half a pot. It really looks like he wants us to call so what can he have?

If he has KK+,99,55,AQs,KQs,JTs,AQo,KQo,JTo, he has 87%.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Though it is tricky we can call and make a note. It is not that big of a mistake.


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