Fracking the hell out of AK

Why notbet the turn after the x-x on flop?

Hero is the pre-flop aggressor. The pot is big. Hero has hit the board with TPTK.
Cbet the flop is fine.

Originally posted by poompah
MP: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 27.10, PFR: 18.69, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 223)
What hand calls me on this Flop that I beat?

3Bet hands: JJ+, A9s+, KJs+, AQo+, KQo (88 hands, no card removal).
Call 4-bet hands: JJ+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ (64 hands, no card removal). Against this range Hero has almost 74% equity.
On a bet from Hero Villain could call with a set, overpair, top pair, second pocket pair, and two card flush draws: 26 combo's: JJ+, AK, AJ:heart:+, KQ:heart: (with card removal).
Hero still has a 63% equity.
Given the potsize after hero's Cbet of 2/3 pot, Villain would probably muck his draws: 2 combo's. However this wouldn't change Hero's equity.

Hero doesn't play AK! He plays a certain 4-bet range. Against this range with this board Villain could muck all his hands, save AA and KK, or on the contrary float with his total 4-bet calling range.

A float here is costing Villain half his remaining stack -- so he has to plan to shove the Turn regardless of what falls and hope he has enough FE to get Hero to give up his hand is a spot where that is unlikely -- given the pot size and likely holdings -- if I bet half-pot that leaves Villain with 35BB to bluff with into 130 BB. That's a pretty poor plan IMO.

The Turn changes nothing -- although I guess if he has something like mid PP he might call a <50% pot bet.

What I am asking here is -- is it worth trying to get any more value or will villain call/fold with the same range on Flop as Turn?
If villain has a Flush draw surely he bets the Flop when checked to?

Of course you should. But what we are trying to tell you is that you should start searching for value earlier.
And betting flop or turn is way better than checking and betting river.

Flatting four bets with kqs, ajs and aq is a sure fire way to be depositing more funds. I dont think you can give many villains any of this range in such a spot.

Id be counting on QQ-KK and AK only as a range indictor. Perhaps add a slowplay combo of AA and remove one combo of QQ for tighter folds.

Im happy to x-call flop here. Our hand is nothing more than a bluff catcher against a sensible range.

Originally posted by Jaissica
Flatting four bets with kqs, ajs and aq is a sure fire way to be depositing more funds. I dont think you can give many villains any of this range in such a spot.

Id be counting on QQ-KK and AK only as a range indictor. Perhaps add a slowplay combo of AA and remove one combo of QQ for tighter folds.

Im happy to x-call flop here. Our hand is nothing more than a bluff catcher against a sensible range.

How about betting turn after flop went x-x?

Originally posted by nitrol

How about betting turn after flop went x-x?

+1, like it. 1/3rd pot?

Agreed -- betting Flop smallish is ok as is betting the Turn when the Flop gets checked through. My line is just expecting too much while inconsistent with PF and how I play other value hands.
If this was a blind-vs-blind then maybe something creative to get more value but here I think 1 check max given Villains likely range MP-vs-UTG.

As far as flatting 4-bets with less than stellar hands -- this is 5NL and I see plenty of very questionable plays (some of them mine LOL!) so they cannot be completely discounted -- though still quite unlikely of course given my impression of MP.

Originally posted by Jaissica

Originally posted by nitrol

How about betting turn after flop went x-x?

+1, like it. 1/3rd pot?

Yes, 30-40% will do it.

You could cbet flop but I think checking is ok also. I would bet turn when flop went check check.

I'd also be betting turn after x/x on flop. Around 40%.

@ flop I would give him the range: JJ-KK, KQs, AQo-AKo, AJs-AKs.
I think the most @ NL5 will reraise AA preflop.

Do you have some stats about his fold-to-cbet @ flop?
Do you have some stats about it @ the turn?

I think JJ, QQ can call one bet @ flop/turn. If you bet flop and check turn, check riven I see them betting back as well.
I think you will gain more money if you bet flop or turn. And if you just check it down what cards you want to see that makes him betting?

The two call-4 ranges assigned to this villain so far are wider than his likely 3bet range in this position, MP vs UTG, for villain described, at 4.83%.

MP: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 27.10, PFR: 18.69, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 223)

Resteal % would give you a better idea, but I'd be suprised if the villain 3bets more than 4% MP vs UTG, and absolutely stunned if the villain continues vs hero 4bet with anything except QQ+, AK.

Smaller 4bet preflop. You have abt. pot bet otf so go with it or bet like 1/3 pot and the rest ott.

I think we might put JJ in the call-4 range too -- at 5NL people have a hard job letting go of decent pairs PF -- but that is a guess -- and QQ+/AK is most likely given his stats. Some LAGs may call with less than this in position IMO -- as will any Isildur fanboys who railed the high stakes games online (and do not understand the difference a deep stack makes).

There is no reason to believe he is getting clever with AA or KK -- these are very standard shoves PF for pretty much all TAG players. I do see calls with AK quite often.

Yep -- I see now my 4B is a tad large.