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Zoom JJ vs NIT 3bet

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shecky
Joined: 20.08.2009

So after he is 23/16/1.9 , this player is 3bet only AK QQ+ without any bluffs
I'm not thinking to 4bet him here at all (only if I have KK/AA)
But is the call still profitable here in a long run cause when we hit the set we will take more from him and when not we can take it away cheaper

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $2.98 (59.6 bb)
BB: $4.52 (90.4 bb) 23/16/1.9 /FT3B 75 / 300 hands
UTG: $7.10 (142 bb)
MP: $2.13 (42.6 bb)
Hero (CO): $9.93 (198.6 bb)
BTN: $10.46 (209.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, BB raises to $0.45, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.92) 9 3 2 (2 players)
BB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.92) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.92) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35

Results:

Spoiler

$4.62 pot ($0.19 rake)
Final Board: 9 3 2 2 5
BB showed K K and won $4.43 ($2.13 net)
Hero mucked J J and lost (-$2.30 net)


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18 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Yes, the call preflop is profitable in the long run. You have to defend not only with 4b but with call too.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Yes, you can call here and it is profitable in the long run.

You have 300 hands on villain but you didn't tell us what is his 3bet %? You only told his FT3B, which is irrelevant in this spot.
So villain doesn't 3bet bluff ever? Have you called his every 3bet? =)


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shecky
Joined: 20.08.2009

Originally posted by la55i
Yes, you can call here and it is profitable in the long run.

You have 300 hands on villain but you didn't tell us what is his 3bet %? You only told his FT3B, which is irrelevant in this spot.
So villain doesn't 3bet bluff ever? Have you called his every 3bet? =)

"So after he is 23/16/1.9" -> VPP23/ PFR16/ 3bet 1.9.
I don't remember any hands with him but still 1.9% 3bet is too little for JJ since AK/QQ+ is 2.5%


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Oh, I assumed it was AF stat :) 1.9% indeed looks value only and very tight. I would still defend this by calling.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by shecky

Originally posted by la55i
Yes, you can call here and it is profitable in the long run.

You have 300 hands on villain but you didn't tell us what is his 3bet %? You only told his FT3B, which is irrelevant in this spot.
So villain doesn't 3bet bluff ever? Have you called his every 3bet? =)

"So after he is 23/16/1.9" -> VPP23/ PFR16/ 3bet 1.9.
I don't remember any hands with him but still 1.9% 3bet is too little for JJ since AK/QQ+ is 2.5%

You are right. In most cases he is doing this with KK+ for sure and with QQ+ sometimes.
We can just call preflop.


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AXSPIRAL
Joined: 06.03.2011

its tough.. i think you played it ok. also the riverbet after the turn checks


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

He's preety tight, river call is disputable, both calling/ falling seem fine (inclined to call at nl5)


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shecky
Joined: 20.08.2009

Originally posted by la55i
Yes, you can call here and it is profitable in the long run.

You have 300 hands on villain but you didn't tell us what is his 3bet %? You only told his FT3B, which is irrelevant in this spot.
So villain doesn't 3bet bluff ever? Have you called his every 3bet? =)

Around those thoughts how can we found out how much valiant is 3bet or even 4 bet bluffing us (30% or 40% or 60% etc) only from looking some of his other stats. So after we found that we can update your ranges to adjust to him to steal him even more with 3bet /4bet bluffs in right spots


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Show his stats for what you want to know and we will tell you.


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NothingIsForSho
Joined: 01.06.2014

it's not easy to get 300 hands on one person playing zoom, almost impossible really you have to put in ton of volume to achieve that.

shame you didn't use that 1.9% stat you had available to you to your advantage

however the call on the river is probably gto of course you win in that regard. but it's tough getting penetrated like that when you think the guy is a nit.


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shecky
Joined: 20.08.2009

Originally posted by nitrol
Show his stats for what you want to know and we will tell you.

I want to build a 3b/shove range for person that is bluffing 60% and the rest calling with QQ+/AK for example.
So for opponent like this we are at break even with a range like TT+,AKs,AJo+ (or something like that)
But my main question here is how we know that he is bluffing 60% of the times. Is there a way to see it in any stat to give us a queue


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

We can't know for sure how much villain is bluffing. If he has only 2% 3bet stat it suggests that it is value hands only. 2% is QQ+,AQs+.
When someone has wider 3bet range, lets say that he has 6%, we can assume that he has bluffs in it too. We can't know how much exactly but we can assume it is around 50% since the goal is to have as many bluffs as we have value 3bets.

Villains overall 3bet % is very low but how often he 3bets from BB?


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NothingIsForSho
Joined: 01.06.2014

you would need a 3bet fold to 4bet stat which is very hard to get a good sample on


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shecky
Joined: 20.08.2009

Originally posted by la55i
We can't know for sure how much villain is bluffing. If he has only 2% 3bet stat it suggests that it is value hands only. 2% is QQ+,AQs+.
When someone has wider 3bet range, lets say that he has 6%, we can assume that he has bluffs in it too. We can't know how much exactly but we can assume it is around 50% since the goal is to have as many bluffs as we have value 3bets.

Villains overall 3bet % is very low but how often he 3bets from BB?

After 300 hands he is never 3bet from BB


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shecky
Joined: 20.08.2009

Originally posted by NothingIsForSho
you would need a 3bet fold to 4bet stat which is very hard to get a good sample on

I guess so since after 300hands he has never been in a situation like this


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by shecky

Originally posted by nitrol
Show his stats for what you want to know and we will tell you.

I want to build a 3b/shove range for person that is bluffing 60% and the rest calling with QQ+/AK for example.
So for opponent like this we are at break even with a range like TT+,AKs,AJo+ (or something like that)
But my main question here is how we know that he is bluffing 60% of the times. Is there a way to see it in any stat to give us a queue

Now basic value 3B range is QQ+, AK, which is the top 2.52% of hands. In your case, your villain has a lower total 3b % which tells us that he is not bluffing or if he is doing that it is very very rare thing.

When the 3B number is bigger than 3-4% it means that villain has added bluffs.

When you face a range of: QQ+, AK you cannot shove: TT+,AKs,AJo+ ... You shove KK+, or QQ+...


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by la55i
We can't know for sure how much villain is bluffing. If he has only 2% 3bet stat it suggests that it is value hands only. 2% is QQ+,AQs+.
When someone has wider 3bet range, lets say that he has 6%, we can assume that he has bluffs in it too. We can't know how much exactly but we can assume it is around 50% since the goal is to have as many bluffs as we have value 3bets.

Villains overall 3bet % is very low but how often he 3bets from BB?

2% is QQ+.AKs...


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by shecky

Originally posted by la55i
We can't know for sure how much villain is bluffing. If he has only 2% 3bet stat it suggests that it is value hands only. 2% is QQ+,AQs+.
When someone has wider 3bet range, lets say that he has 6%, we can assume that he has bluffs in it too. We can't know how much exactly but we can assume it is around 50% since the goal is to have as many bluffs as we have value 3bets.

Villains overall 3bet % is very low but how often he 3bets from BB?

After 300 hands he is never 3bet from BB

Well, when we add that to the low 3b number it means he is value 3 betting.


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