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AA fold on turn vrs. nit

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shecky
Joined: 20.08.2009

Since a player like this one raise us on the turn I'm expecting him to have mostly sets there
What do you think

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $4.96 (99.2 bb)
BB: $5.06 (101.2 bb)
UTG: $6.94 (138.8 bb) 14/12 after 90 hands
Hero (MP): $8.95 (179 bb)
CO: $4.19 (83.8 bb)
BTN: $3.41 (68.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A A
UTG raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.97) 2 T 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.61, UTG calls $0.61

Turn: ($2.19) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.38, UTG raises to $5.88, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$4.95 pot ($0.21 rake)
Final Board: 2 T 8 9
UTG mucked and won $4.74 ($2.30 net)
Hero mucked A A and lost (-$2.44 net)


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15 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Sets, straight, can be 2P ( not many but still).
Well played.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Villain looks quite tight so I don't see straights or 2 pair in his range here. Most likely he has a set. Could be AdQd+ too?


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Maybe not straight but still it is possible.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Well everything is possible. I don't just see it very probable that he will call our 3bet from OOP with many suited connectors that would make a straight or 2 pair here.


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AXSPIRAL
Joined: 06.03.2011

looks like 88/99/TT if its a reg.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by la55i
Well everything is possible. I don't just see it very probable that he will call our 3bet from OOP with many suited connectors that would make a straight or 2 pair here.

It doesn'tmatter much. Villain is doing this with hands that beat us.
According to Baluga Theorem we should fold too....


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Yes I agree with you. Flod is good here. Even if he manages to bluff us sometimes folding will be correct in the long run in situations like this. Maybe 2pair is not that likely but he has sets for sure.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Fold is right. Standard situation here.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Hail Baluga!


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oI2ange
Joined: 21.07.2015

Well played, especially on this specific turn card. With shorter stacks and a different turn, I like bet/calling instead.


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scopinad
Joined: 13.06.2015

Yes, heads up pot, unlikely he has the straight. Probably a set.
Nice fold, villain shortchanged.


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StruxXx
Joined: 18.12.2015

Is it wrong to check this behind on turn and evaluate the river?
I tend to do it sometimes just so that flop doesnt get inflated. After all on this board we only got an overpair


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

This board is quite wet and our hand needs protection. If we bet OTT we get more value from draws, if we check we let draws to see a free card. I don't like checking behind.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Originally posted by StruxXx
Is it wrong to check this behind on turn and evaluate the river?
I tend to do it sometimes just so that flop doesnt get inflated. After all on this board we only got an overpair

2draws are possible and it is bad to give free cards. We need to make them pay to see a card.


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pokerplayernumber1
Joined: 05.06.2010

wp
villain has set and is off the position, he also dont like turn card although turn dont help hero most of the time
definitely a best play


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