Bluff raise flop vs donk ?

i just fold if you raise $1.4 is more than enough, he should be pretty polarized

So you want to figure out if raising a donk is ok here.
Let's first think what villain can donk pot size. What do you think?

I would say he has A5,33,55,66-TT,A2s,A3s,A4s.. I don't see that many bluffs but I added ATs and KQs to my range just to make it a bit wider.

MP2 24.35% 22.35% 1.99% KcQc
MP3 75.65% 73.66% 1.99% TT-55, 33, ATs, A5s, A3s, KQs, 76s, 65s, 54s, Ad4d, As4s, Ac4c, Ad2d, As2s, Ac2c, A5o, A3o

As you can see from this. You have 24% equity against his range. You have to include A LOT of bluffs to make it better. If you add KJs,KTs,QJs,QTs,JTs, your equity improves only to 34%.

Your BDFD is not to the nuts, villain could hold better.
Raising this looks like burning money. You would basically raise only for info.
You would have to give up on a lot of turns. Same problem is if you call. You maybe could continue one more street if you hit K or Q but you could be already behind and your BDFD might not be good since board is paired and you don't hold Ac.

Looks to me that the best play here is to fold. You take a note that villain calls BBvsBTN and donks pot on dry paired board. If he starts doing this often you can adjust but as long as you don't have good reads, I think everything else than fold is bad.

Wll, I do not completely agree with la55i here. Last night I met some donkers that donk pot on flop and fold vs a raise...
Paired boards are scary and villain will fold much.

Originally posted by nitrol
Wll, I do not completely agree with la55i here. Last night I met some donkers that donk pot on flop and fold vs a raise...
Paired boards are scary and villain will fold much.

Vs some players this is true. But how much bluffs do we have to add to villains range to make it even somehow profitable move to raise?

Villains stats:
BB: €15.47 (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 61)

If we don't have any other info or if we haven't seen him donk before pot size I would just fold. This hand could get very expensive if we raise. But I understand your point.

No real power hand is donking pot here. This is a small to medium pocket pair...
We can raise.

I don't think raising is super super bad but it is potentially very expensive. You could flip a coin and decide whether to raise or fold.

Nitrol, since when have you opted for the more aggressive line? ♦

Yes actually it should be cheaper since his bet is big, and my FE doesn't change.

Originally posted by la55i
You would basically raise only for info.
You would have to give up on a lot of turns. Same problem is if you call.

I wouldn't raise for info at all. When he bets he's ahead of me (so fold is an acceptable option) but I don't think he does that with a very strong hand. He'd probably just let me bet if he had 33, 55 or 5x. For me he is much more likely to have 66-TT or a 3 and fold it against my raise because I have scared him.

And of course if he doesn't fold I'm giving up my bluff, I have nothing. The idea is to have a +EV move on the flop only.

My equity against his range is irrelevant. What's important is my fold equity, like this: say I raise to 1.40. Two possibilities:
- He folds. I win the pot, 0.61 (yes the pot is really 0.61, the tracker doesn't take into account that PokerStars has already taken the rake here), plus his bet, 0.61: +1.22
- He doesn't and for the sake of simplicity, say I always lose the hand (we're interested in my EV on the flop only). I lose my raise, ie -1.40.

So the EV of my raise on the flop is FE * 1.22 - (1 - FE) * 1.40. This EV is 0 for FE = 1.40 / ( 1.40 + 1.22) = 53%
(I'd need 59% if I raised to 1.80)

The actual question is then: do I have 53% FE in this spot ? I think I have more than that.

You have FE and I agree that he has a pair of some kind or even further SC...

Okay, you have fold equity. But still from the range I provided above 36% are 5x and 33. If we add 53s and 75s it is 44% but those 2 gappers are not so realistic. If villain calls our raise with 88-TT we don't have 53% fold equity anymore.

Even if he had only 66-TT, is he going to fold half of them? It is close.

No 55, 33 and 5x are stupid enough to donk and make you fold...

And here we will see more 66-88 than TT...

I agree with you on some level but I think it is a bit wild to narrow villains range from standard 31% (414 combos) calling range to 18 combos just because he donks pot.

Look at the board and think with is he donking with.
66-99, SCs, suited broadways...
All real value powerhouse will let you bet.

IMO we can raise flop.

Heros range has a lot more 5x hands(hero can open a lot of trash on the button that is 5x) than SB. Sb;s calling range doesn't have so many 5x hands.

+ I dont think that villain takes this line often with nuts/near nuts.

I would be raising.

Edit; hero can also have all the bigger pairs as SB did not 3bet(he would 3bet JJ+)--> I see villain folding often.

I also like the fact that we have 2 overs+ bdfd.

raise!

Btw I'm also doing this because villain is not interested in my cards. I'm very unbalanced here. But I don't really care about balancing my range against an unknown player that donks pot on such a flop.

Got a similar spot today. It's a bit less good because we don't have anything to fall back on but I think the raise itself is still +EV because the board is very dry:

This is a tendency to donk pot flop and fold vs a re-raise...

Apparently I was wrong. I agree that villain shouldn't donk pot with 5x. And they probably are not so good that they understand that they are capped and should defend vs our raise or stop donking ♦

I see this every session. I kind of like it. Easy money.

I play at stars and 888 NL5 and I have to say that I very rarely see something like that.. Interesting I would like my villains to start doing that ♦