JJ over pair 3bet pot

As played, x/c river seems good to me.

After the turn play you can xc river and see his cards.

x/c river is good imo. I think villain would have bet his higher pairs OTT.

X/c looking at his stats, there's nothing but TT QQ KK AA AQs AK AJs

I see no reason why he would check OTT with overpairs when he can easily bet for value and he need to protect vs draws. Most likely he is bluffing with A high?

Disagree with the above opinions.

Fold the river. This NIT is checking behind turn with his overpair because he is afraid of getting check/raised on the turn due to 1 card straight on the board. He does not realize that you almost never have 4 in your range.

When you check turn and river - he throws a valuebet. The only hand you beat in his valuebet range is TT which i believe he does not 3bet pre having in mind his stats.

He also wins high % at showdown which makes me thing he does not bluff that often.

Originally posted by la55i
I see no reason why he would check OTT with overpairs when he can easily bet for value and he need to protect vs draws. Most likely he is bluffing with A high?

He can play like this the small overpairs but the big ones he should be betting turn with.

Good odds + near top of range -> call.

If you want to play poker, then go to the next level (he has 300 hands on you too); what is your perceived range? Do you look weak?

If you want to take it further, does this guy know what we put him on two high cards (that may or may not be a pair)? It would be fun to check-raise him AI (possibly with someone else's money) just to see if he calls:D

Originally posted by Sunrise1912
Disagree with the above opinions.

Fold the river. This NIT is checking behind turn with his overpair because he is afraid of getting check/raised on the turn due to 1 card straight on the board. He does not realize that you almost never have 4 in your range.

When you check turn and river - he throws a valuebet. The only hand you beat in his valuebet range is TT which i believe he does not 3bet pre having in mind his stats.

He also wins high % at showdown which makes me thing he does not bluff that often.

I agree: 9h river is blank and he betting here big because realized that check turn = lost value

What will you x/c here then? AA?

Originally posted by nitrol
What will you x/c here then? AA?

With KK+ I play all-in earlier....

lets think about his range
he might bluffing here with AdKd,AdQd,Ad2d
for value he betting with QQ+

BTN: QQ+,AdKd,AdQd,Ad2d 84%
Hero: JsJc 16%

we need 39% equity for profitable call here

You are not answering my question.

We can't fold 100% whenever we check river. This is why I advocated a call (readless) in the first place. I dare speculate that nitrol has a similar concern. If course I respect a fold based on actual reads or population reads. (I just don't have the ability to put precise ranges on villains I don't know.)

Originally posted by YohanN7
We can't fold 100% whenever we check river. This is why I advocated a call (readless) in the first place. I dare speculate that nitrol has a similar concern. If course I respect a fold based on actual reads or population reads. (I just don't have the ability to put precise ranges on villains I don't know.)

+1.