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QQ set vs bad river

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Fearcrow
Joined: 28.06.2009

Pacific, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $13.05 (261 bb)
BB: $3.35 (67 bb)
Hero (UTG): $11.41 (228.2 bb)
MP: $6.91 (138.2 bb)
CO: $2.50 (50 bb)
BTN: $3.99 (79.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q♥: Q♣:
Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.15, SB folds, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) 3♣: T♣: 4♦: (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.35, BTN calls $0.35, BB folds

Turn: ($1.17) Q♦: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.87, BTN calls $0.87

River: ($2.91) A♣: (2 players)
Hero bets $1.45, BTN raises to $2.62 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.17

I decided to bet rather small on the river (1/2 pot) since the river card is probably the worst card in the deck because it completes the flush draw and straight draw if e.g. KJ decided to call flop with overcards+backdoor and oesd on the turn.

I chose to call the river raise with pot odds 1,17/6,98 = 0,167. Thus we need to be ahead 17% of the times to make a profitable call if I am not mistaken. Do you think we can expect to be ahead enough times to call in this spot?


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7 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You pot commit yourself on river and cannot fold...


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I think it is well played. Villain has enough stupid hands in his range to make that call profitable.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I really don't see worse hands doing this move OTR often enough. I also call those spots most of the time, but I believe it's not profitable. What about betting small (1/4 - 1/3) and fold to a raise? I don't expect villain bluffing us and it's more likelly that he will pay another bet with Qx. We have to be aware that if he didn't have a flushdraw OTF and OTT, is scared of this card, just like we are.


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

First of all, I think your opponent mostly the fish - 79,8BB stack.
Second, if his wtsd >= 29, I guess he could have Ax hand, that means he could have not only flush.
Third, you commited your self by your river bet.


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tiltmonk
Joined: 02.07.2014

Just to note - if your opponent is fishy enough, he would never find fold button OTT. Just overbet shove here, if his wtsd>30, you will get call here from his draw. In thi case you just have a deal fish natural phone who never folds. There is no sence in sizing balance vs guys like "that".


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

If you find a fold here, you'll be making the GREAT OVERTHINK. There are players that are famous for making great laydowns - and also not so great laydowns. The pot odds make this nearly a fixed limit spot. There you'd call down with as little as a Q. Not saying you should call down with a single Q (because it isn't FL after all), but definitely with a set of queens.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

Villain wouldn't overbet with just Ax, perhaps 2p or something? In any case, we can call here.


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