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KJs flush, facing river all in

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Pnnkaznk
Joined: 13.11.2009

Weird hand, wuld he check set on turn, Ax of hearth, 89!?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.7 BB (VPIP: 21.50, PFR: 20.56, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 108)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 17)
Hero (BB): 103.3 BB
UTG: 73.7 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP: 120.1 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 26.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 30)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♥ K♥

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8 BB, 3 players) 4♥ 9♥ 8♠
Hero checks, MP bets 5.7 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.7 BB

Turn: (19.4 BB, 2 players) K♣
Hero checks, MP checks

River: (19.4 BB, 2 players) 8♥
Hero bets 12.9 BB, MP raises to 111.9 BB and is all-in, fold

Spoiler

MP wins 43.2 BB


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8 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

With second nuts, you sometimes have to call. How often is a pure math thing. No play is a mistake OTR. (You could of course also guess what villain has. That part is up to you:))


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I do not think that sets, 98 are xb turn here. Even fish knows he should bet here.
His play is like a FD and it could be a nut one...
I prefer folding but calling from time to time is not a mistake.


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Pnnkaznk
Joined: 13.11.2009

Its huge overbet too, if pot was bigger i might consider calling.


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FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

A set wont stall on the turn, a set is hoping to protect against draws. So a flush is more likely. I wont bother you with the math here but you always have to ask yourself: would they raise all in with 3rd nuts or less? If yes then call. Maybe im too tight/or have been playing too much plo, but I am always so curious what they think my 2/3rd donking range is on the river (or maybe they dont think) and then I am always inclined to think that lower flushes would just call and thus it must be the higher flush; but perhaps yohanN7 is right and sometimes you just have to call and then you see like Qhi flush or something as well; of course there exist more lower flushes than flushes that beatt you but the question is again would he (value)raise (all-in) with the lower ones.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Sets are most likelly cbetting the turn, trips and flushes are probably not shoving the river. So, his play is a bit ackward for me, hard to estimate what he has. I believe folding would generally be better because not many will bluff the river that way.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

I agree that sets would bet OTT and trips or worse won't shove OTR. Villain has most likely a flush, we don't have the nut flush so folding is ok. Sometimes we have to call here but since the pot size is so small compared to villains raise, I think we can play it safe and fold.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

I have fold in these situations and would do it again here. versus villain's bet I think we cannot make up for the loss but if we need to be good not too often then for sure it is a call with a second nut flush.


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FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

In this spot I would probably also fold to the overshove here will be like calling 82 effectively to win 209.2 or something then you have to be right 39% of the time thats still a lot.


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