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1€ ATo turn top 2

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InezMuchez
Joined: 10.11.2011

SB: 7,030 (58.6 bb)
Hero (BB): 7,140 (59.5 bb)
UTG+2: 2,710 (22.6 bb)
MP1: 9,210 (76.8 bb)
MP2: 7,674 (64 bb)
MP3: 4,080 (34 bb)
CO: 8,235 (68.6 bb)
BTN: 13,122 (109.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T♣: A♥:
UTG+2 raises to 240, MP1 calls 240, 5 folds, Hero calls 120

Flop: (780) A♠: 6♥: 5♣: (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets 390, Hero calls 390, UTG+2 folds

Turn: (1,560) T♠: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets 780, Hero raises to 2,121, MP1 folds

Hello everyone!

MP: 8/5, 4% 3bet, 60 hands

On this turn, I can think of two options:

- lead
- check/call turn and lead river

I think ch/r-ing will isolate me against his sets and he would even fold AQ.

I don't think I can check 3 streets because I'm not sure if he would bet 3 streets for value with a worse hand and I don't want him to check back a weaker made hand on the river.

The fact that he bets the turn instead of checking back (which he may do with a weaker ace) makes me believe he's bluffing or he's really strong (sets or strong Aces, AQ, AJ, I don't think he has A6s, A5s because he's way too tight for that), so thinking through all this I'd say check/calling the turn is a better option and I should let him fire one more time on the river.

What do you guys think about it?


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lila28
Joined: 31.05.2013

Pretty interesting hand.

I agree about not c/r that often because we likely narrow thinking opponent range here without specific read.
Vs very weak player who hate folding any pair/draw we might decide c/r turn to build pot some because we might not narrow his range as much as we think we do. (Questionable if random 1$ not fit description). + likely Fold vs 3bet on turn or raise on river after we bet river some.
Don't like leading turn. If you try get only 1 street from non Ax hand you probably get it on river after he checks anyway and Ax/strong draws will likely bet himself anyway. Note you block Ax and Tx combo what improve your fold equity to lead there, what is not really that good. Need to have specific read on his turn betting range/calling range for me to consider start leading. Also don't like we don't bluff by leading here (seem not good spot to do it) so we basically have only strong hands when we take this line.

Let say we check-call turn.
In this spot on river i would think like this:
What mistakes my opponent is more likely to make, calling or betting(over bluffing) on river? And allow him make them.
If he is more likely make calling mistakes by calling more often vs our lead ,then bluff too aggressively when we check to our opponent, with hands he should not and it cost him more money we should lead river, and other side around if we think he is very likely make mistakes by making betting mistake more often and it cost him more money long run we want allow him rope himself by checking more often.
Overall in passive 1$ game there is good chance players make more calling mistakes then betting mistakes here, so i think you have good logic in your OP for decision on river.


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Your analyze is very good lila28, but based on his stats I would go for the check/call turn and her-evaluate the river. I expect you get only action better if you raise and I don’t think he has a bluffing range and then it’s better to keep his top pair hands AK and maybe AQ in his range.

Normal I would even fold pre-flop against these type of players, because he’s most likely only raising something like 88+ and AQ+ here.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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