If a player raises a pair, and then is called or raised, should they draw two or three?
Although I always hate it when I chuck my A kicker, and draw another, I am solidly in the "Always draw 3" camp.
Here is why:
Example
:Kx::Ax::Kx::Qx::4x:
This hand is the 89th percentile -- only 11% of all hands beat it, so it is definitely worth a raise -- even from UTG
In any later position, it is a huge favourite.
Someone in later position, or in the blinds calls or 3-Bets
Draw 3, keeping the Kings, or draw two, keeping the Ace?
First, what can the other player have?
Assuming we are UTG raising Kings, when we get called, the only sensible pair hand that can call is a pair of Aces. If that is the hand they hold, then keeping our Ace won't help us, because there is only one other, and the odds of hitting it are slim.
Drawing 2 also won't convince anyone you have trips, since if you did, you would (or should) cap the pot, and you're not likely to want to do that with a pair of Kings.
The most likely hand for a 3-better to have is two pair.
So to beat two pair here are the odds:
Drawing 3:
Odds of making 2 pair: 5.26:1 -- and since you threw an Ace, the odds of opponent holding Aces up is reduced
Odds of making trips: 7.75:1 -- will beat even his Aces up
Odds of making either: 2.65:1
If you add in full house and quads, the overall odds of improving a pair are 2.48:1
If you draw 2:
Odds of making 2 pair: 4.54:1 (slightly better than with no kicker)
Odds of making trips: 11.87:1 (quite a bit worse than drawing 3)
Odds of making either: 2.74:1 (worse, but not by a huge margin)
So to get the best odds of improving, it seems that the best course of action is to draw 3 to a high pair when called or 3-Bet.
There are some times when it might make sense to draw two to a pair:
You hold :Ax::Ax::Kx: In this case, if you are reasonably sure that the opponent also has Aces (for example, opponent raised UTG and drew three) then the K ensures that if you are Aces vs Aces then you have top kicker.
You want to disguise your hand or to represent trips
You get limped to in the BB and have something like :2x::2x::Ax: Not much different than drawing 4, so it doesn't hurt to do this once in a while.
Comments?
VS;