** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ** (Poker Stars)
$2.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, September 08
Table "2nl" (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ( $2.05 USD ) - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 4.4, Hands: "A Milli"
Seat 3: Player3 ( $2.37 USD ) - VPIP: 12, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 73
Seat 4: Player4 ( $2.01 USD ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 3, 3B: 1, AF: 2.2, Hands: 439
Seat 5: Player5 ( $1.73 USD ) - VPIP: 25, PFR: 18, 3B: 3, AF: 1.7, Hands: 130
Seat 6: Player6 ( $2.24 USD ) - VPIP: 10, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 29
Seat 7: Player7 ( $2.75 USD ) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 6, 3B: 3, AF: 4.0, Hands: 2971
Seat 8: Player8 ( $1.18 USD ) - VPIP: 33, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 2.2, Hands: 101
Seat 9: Player9 ( $1.81 USD ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 1.6, Hands: 3419
Player9 posts small blind [$0.01 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$0.02 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ As Kc ]
Player3 folds
Player4 folds
Player5 raises [$0.06 USD]
Player6 calls [$0.06 USD]
Player7 folds
Player8 folds
Player9 calls [$0.05 USD]
Hero raises [$0.28 USD]
Player5 calls [$0.24 USD]
Player6 calls [$0.24 USD]
Player9 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, 6c, 9h ]
Hero checks
Player5 bets [$0.50 USD]
Player6 folds
Hero raises [$1.75 USD]
Player5 folds
Hero wins $1.25 USD
Hero wins $1.89 USD from main pot
I honestly think my play was just right vs given opposition. Yet, I talked with a friend and I'm not really sure if I my shove was
+EV. I think it is, but maybe it wasn't.
The story: I raise kind-of steep preflop with AKo vs a few guys, 30c, hopefully to:
A)Steal dead money
B)Get less players in the flop
C)Show strength
2 people call. Flop comes, low cards, I miss completely. I check, I haven't decided if I'll shove or just fold if there's any action on the flop. Why do I not Cbet? I missed, chance that the 2 guys will fold as well right on the flop, I think, is slim. Plus, if they call, I don't think I'll be able to bluff them off their holdings on the turn and I can even bet and get raised all in and then I'd fold.
2nd player to act bets 50c. I put him on like QQ or JJ, in my mind, maybe. I don't think he's nuts enough to call with lower stuff, but not sure. 3rd player folds, so he didn't successfully mine his set or whatever he wanted.
I'm left with decision to either like fold and lose $0.30 starting investment or try to get all that money in the middle. I just shove, because I think such play conveys Aces or Kings realistically and he may even fold QQ or JJ if I convinced him.
As opposed, if he has AA, I'm so dead I get 1.1c back on average, any set, I'm 100% dead.
If he has KK, I'm 13%, 1 in 8 times, which gives me a whopping 47c back on average. Thus making my bluff cost me 143 - 47 = 96c on average. I think, nobody is nitty enough to fold Kings in this spot, but I also don't think him having kings is likely, because:
a)it's just statistically very rare for him to have kings, especially with my AK blockers.
b)basically very vast majority of people don't play KK like that in $2nl.
If he has any pair lower than KK, missed, I have 24% equity. $3.66 (3.82 with effective rake of 4%). That's 88c back on average, thus' making effective cost of my bluff called by pairs lower than KK 143c - 88c = 55c per an instance.
Pairs hit by non-pair hands and straight draws, I don't think are likely so I haven't calculated the odds.
With this data, I think I did the right thing to shove and hope for a fold from what I assumed, a lower pair than KK and +EV in general.
My estimation on what happens next, basically ballpark figures.
25% he calls set hit and AA, -$1.43/ea
25% he calls pairs lower than mine (QQs), -$0.55/ea
50% he folds (because, I think, I showed strength nicely plus the slim chance he has AKtwin or some other nonpair he wants to fold) +$1.39/ea
If I take my ballpark estimates in, it sums up as:
- $0.3575
- $0.1375
+ $0.6950
= + $0.20 per this shove on average...
but is it?
