AA vs double paired board

I think we can bet the turn and plan to check back/fold the river. He might have some worse hands OTT that are calling, like QQ-99 or maybe some flushdraws. As played, I believe folding to this river size (or any size?) is fine.

We can cbet turn too.
As played, we should call and make a note. What if 99-QQ bet like this?

I bet turn per thin value/free showdown, as played is sick river: does he pot with jxss?
As played prolly i close my eyes and i call muck:D

By not betting turn we let villain hit his draws for free and we miss value. Weaker pocket pairs, draws and maybe some overcards can call a turn bet. As played villain can be bluffing a lot or betting with weaker hands like Jx. I would call river.

This is a clear check on turn. Extracting value versus draws seems rather ridiculous on a doubly paired board. He might just have a flush draw in spades (but read on), but he may be slowplaying a million full houses. BB is a nit. Nits do not draw at non-nut flushes on paired boards versus an UTG range that hits the pair. In particular, nits do not draw at backdoors. So, he's not very likely to be on a draw.

Checking turn has quintuple purpose. It puts us in a position where avoiding going broke versus a very possible 8 is very easy (1). It might induce him to bluff river (2). It will make him sometimes value bet river with pocket pairs that we beat (3). If we check, he'll on occasion also make a hand worth betting that would have folded to a bet (4).

Also, we aren't missing value against smaller pocket pairs. They will call a river bet fro us. (Part of rationale (4) above).

I'd call river. Note that this is the very top of the bluff catching range. Note too that the J♦: is a blank as far as draws go (if you were afraid of them).

I would fire the turn to get a free showdown, to punish his weak check and to get the check raise which will give me info on his hand as the flop is dry and I do not know if we are ahead or behind.

Originally posted by scopinad
I would fire the turn to get a free showdown, to punish his weak check and to get the check raise which will give me info on his hand as the flop is dry and I do not know if we are ahead or behind.

This is one reason why we should check. Punishing his weak hands by making them fold isn't the greatest idea. Betting to find out if you get check-raised isn't the greatest idea either. You don't know what he has, but he also don't know what you have. Keep him in the blue by checking. You give him the wrong idea by doing that.

With your line, you are preparing for a very difficult showdown decision.

Not really. It is a matter of pot odds if he comes out betting (and the range I assign to him). As I mentioned above, I call this bet. We have projected weakness, and he is therefore more likely to bluff than if we had shown strength. (You can't argue with that:)) Then if he isn't bluffing, why bet big to extract value when we have demonstrated to him that we are weak? Against not too deeply thinking players, bet sizing tilts him a little bit towards being on a bluff. (Thinking opponents assigning you a brain as well are harder to figure out. Then it is genuinely difficult.)

If villain is folding his draws vs a turn bet and calling with overpairs then what is the purpose of this check? We make overpairs pay.

We make overpairs pay OTR by betting if he checks. Easy for him to call since we have projected weakness. They aren't paying twice (some would, but you run into slowplayed monsters to compensate) and have only two outs.

Originally posted by la55i
By not betting turn we let villain hit his draws for free and we miss value. Weaker pocket pairs, draws and maybe some overcards can call a turn bet. As played villain can be bluffing a lot or betting with weaker hands like Jx. I would call river.

Hero has As there are few draw, i thank that in 3way oppo doesnt call with backdoor and with pp he pays another street imho

i would play same at turn and call a river bet for same reasons as Johan presented above , with check at turn we keep pot small+ give villain a chance to bluff and people do bluff more then we think if you give them chance, would also take a note if he had nuts and betted pot or if it was a bluff.