PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: 129.5 BB (VPIP: 20.25, PFR: 18.99, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 81)
BB: 196 BB (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 22.73, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.22, PFR: 11.49, 3Bet Preflop: 10.67, Hands: 180)
Hero (BTN): 101.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♠ Q♦
CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 4♥ 6♠ 9♣
CO checks, Hero bets 4 BB, CO calls 4 BB
Turn: (15.5 BB, 2 players) 3♣
CO checks, Hero bets 10.5 BB, CO calls 10.5 BB
River: (36.5 BB, 2 players) K♠
CO checks, Hero checks
I guess in 4-max I can 3-bet this hand, but I am with a nity player so decided to just flat (there is a fish on BB who I would like to be in this pot also).
Flop - he checks - that gives me info that he probably missed a board (usually broadway heavy) - I decided to bet and throw him away with his equity.
Turn - he might probably have called ATB with backdoor and pp like 77-88. When I 2nd barrel here - I will make him fold with a great part of his range - this hands would probably continue, if I bet:
Stół: 9♣6♠4♥ 3♣
Equity Wygrana Podział
MP2 29.37% 27.27% 2.09% { AsQd }
MP3 70.63% 68.54% 2.09% { 88-77, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc }
River - assuming, he has now 12 combos of pp that beats me and that will fold to 3rd barrel, and 7 combos of FD (3 hit top pair) is it reasonable to bet OTR and with a huge amount of probability - win this pot? Am I right that betting OTR - I throw away 16/19 of his hands and only 3/19 call? More or less - it might be 3 combos more, 3 combos less... but generally it should be like ~80% of his range that fold.
