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QQ going broke preflop vs nit

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BelligerentBird
Joined: 08.08.2016

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 115 BB (VPIP: 15.72, PFR: 11.34, 3Bet Preflop: 2.34, Hands: 391)
MP+1: 126.5 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
MP+2: 111.5 BB (VPIP: 27.78, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
CO: 105.5 BB (VPIP: 5.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BTN: 103 BB (VPIP: 11.37, PFR: 9.75, 3Bet Preflop: 4.56, Hands: 922)
Hero (SB): 104.5 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 41.00, PFR: 3.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 102)
UTG: 30.5 BB (VPIP: 72.22, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
UTG+1: 129 BB (VPIP: 19.83, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 117)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♠ Q♣

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 5 BB, Hero raises to 17 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 40 BB, Hero raises to 104.5 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 63 BB and is all-in

Hi guys! BU is nit, but his Fold to 3bet is 57 and his 4bet is 43 (3/7). I also have note on him - 4bet with AQs once.
So I assumed that he opens strong range, but doesn't like to fold it preflop and 4bets big part of his range. If I include AQs and JJ in his 4bet range I have good equity to shove my QQ here.
But I'm not sure that I can build my logic on a such small sample size...

So my question is - how big should be sample size in situations like that? Do you think it was a mistake to base a decision on 1 note and sample size of 7 4bet situations?


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10 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

it's probably ok since you have a note on his 4bet range. note that nits will tend to have low fold3b and high 4b because their range is very strong so they can defend much more...


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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

Just get it in. It's a low sample, but this guy seems to 4bet a bit more than usual, which means he has more bluffs, or a wider broking range (like TT+)


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kocken2016
Joined: 27.09.2016

smply play different styls to broke the f*** 4bet computr pogram,,let the players ues the brain :P you dont have a bike if you dotnt can ride


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

Originally posted by MisterSnS
Just get it in. It's a low sample, but this guy seems to 4bet a bit more than usual, which means he has more bluffs, or a wider broking range (like TT+)

922 hands isn’t a low sample I think, but even than it will be tough to fold QQ against a tight BTN player I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I would play it the same when we decided to 3bet him. Folding to 4bet with QQ seems too weak and calling out of position is no good imo. Other option would be to just call the raise instead of 3betting, but I don't like it that much.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Look at his stats


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Mozzek
Joined: 16.07.2016

I disagree with you guys. We can´t rely on 4 bet stat with sample of 900 hands... I´m calling his 4 bet. Definitelly not goin broke with QQ there... I´ve already learnt it´s a mistake at NL2 (standardly).


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

it's not just about the 4bet stat but the 4bet stat coupled with the note of "he can 4bet AQ". still worth noting that his 4bet range isn't even 5% due to how tight he is


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

I cannot lay down this hand :) Think you also shouldn't because you can also be up against a coin flip.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Going broke should be fine.


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