AQo

Good call, he is repping catastrophically badly played FH which you block with your Q.

Maybe we can bet/fold otr. Size I'd choose would be 1/2 of the pot.

Seeing action preflop and flop : the range I would give him river is basically all broadway (I put all combo with 2high cards in his hands).

When you remove : the combo where he never bet imo : so all KJ KT JT. You're left with 31% equity OTR ==> easy fold.
And that's assuming he's doing that with Ax where you split pot ! If you remove these hands you have 12%.

So contrary at what SeagalSteven says your Q remove combos but not so much compare to the ones where he's betting. The best case scenario for you he bluff flop with A high and bet Any Ax like that on river : you have 40% equity => still a fold (I added all Ax in his range for this simulation)

@Mozzek : imo b/F never a good choice here since you get paid only vs SPLIT or Better hands unless you assume split will fold which seems like a wild guess at NL10

You didn't add any bluffs in his range. He could have for example 7c8c and raise flop with combodraw and when I check twice he could just bet.
I agree that folding might have been better but if you can put villain on a range that we have 40% equity against, it is a call vs this bet size.

Your line looks super weak. Aside from donkey stuff (& balancing that doesn't happen on NL10) I don't see a reason why your opponent would decide to bluff pot sized on the river. If he was bluffing his aim is to make you fold your busted flush draws so a 1/2-2/3 or even 1/3 pot bet would be more than enough for such an occasion, the same bet is good enough for making an opponent fold a two pair with a T or a J. Your opponent never expects you to fold AQ or Q9 here. So what is he pot value betting on the river that he limped in PF and raised OTF? Does he limp suited aces? Does he limp TT? I think you are right he can't have a bd flush especially because it's the Ks and Qs that came on the turn and river, which could have been in some raising combo draws. So it all depends on whether he would value bet an A high straight this way, whether he would raise his fd in position (I wouldn't say raising an A-high flush draw is mandatory IP on the flop.) and whether he actually limps Axs preflop and how much of it he limps. If you have no reads like this I would suggest just folding the river, because his bet reeks of value, people on NL10 don't bluff the river very often and you are not ahead of his value range. I also think you have to give him a lot of credit for bluffing/playing a tonne of Axs via a limp pre to warrant a bluff catch or a call for a split.

What do you make of his raise on the flop? It looks strong. Maybe a set? Does not look like a draw.

Originally posted by la55i
You didn't add any bluffs in his range. He could have for example 7c8c and raise flop with combodraw and when I check twice he could just bet.
I agree that folding might have been better but if you can put villain on a range that we have 40% equity against, it is a call vs this bet size.

I don't believe villain ever bluff potsize OTR here. Also on my post I assume 40% equity if you know he bluff raise Ax on that kind of flop (my guess : it's quite unlikely) and you need a read there to assume that. IMO, OTR you have more like ~25% equity and fold is better.

Forgot point, the river :-)

Too many math calculations, on the river it is more important to draw a conclusion about previous street analysis, board is paired and a flush is complete, villains range is broadways and a letal dead out on the turn.... :-)

Originally posted by piR

I don't believe villain ever bluff potsize OTR here. Also on my post I assume 40% equity if you know he bluff raise Ax on that kind of flop (my guess : it's quite unlikely) and you need a read there to assume that. IMO, OTR you have more like ~25% equity and fold is better.

Yeah, as la55i pointed out, you need 33 eq against pot bet. You said you'd remove KJ/KT/JT from his range, but arent these potential hands to turn bluff and make even some sense? (fish is ready to go broke OTF, now any ace beats him but he has blocking cards for FH and hero's line is weak)

I just feel that when we check otr, we invite him to bluff and need to call. Maybe I shoulnd't have commented on this one, in omaha pot sized bluffs are quite normal especially by fish such as this player clearly is, and he is repping FH which he should not have as he just lost value.

I would like a smaller bet OTR /fold to a raise here better line for hero. I dont agree we only get called by better or split against fish, he could call with 98, counterfeited 2prs, Kxcc just because he feels he has a decent hand. Bet sizing should be smallish accordingly though.