[$3.5 SNG 18 MAN] Nutflush vs. River shove on a paired board

You have to win 27% to show a profit.
AA - 3 combos
KK - 1 combo
JJ - 1 combo
AJ - 3
probably KJ but not sure if he checks trips OTF so lets say 2 instead of 3.
You lose to 10 combos.
Only 9♣:8♣:, T♣:9♣:, T♣:8♣: breaks you even. When you throw in an overplayed straight or random bluff I think you have a call.
But its by no means a clear call, I believe your fold is good!

I would most likely check/shove the river most of the time in this situation. That way you keep is range wider and I think he will still call with worse as well. As played I would most likely call with so much chips invested and he can easy have a worse hand that he shoves with. Especially recreational players overplaying hands often.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Was he always 3X? It might be a clue he has a big pair, JJ & KK fits in perfectly with how he played the hand. Would he 3X with QT or 2 s?
After the flop is checked round I would bet the turn, but that may not be the best thing to do against 2 opponents
OTR after betting I think you have to call, but the more I look at it his small bet OTT looks very inducy and I think I've changed my mind to a b/f

:f_ugly:

i totally understand the b/f on river, but I would challenge myself - then why we call on Turn? We call, our Flush came and ... we bet/fold?

Given his (and ours) stack size, the Turn call and the River Bet is committing us - we need to add 900 chips and we have already invested 1000ish.

and most importantly
since you say he is a fellow recreational player / what do you think he is putting you on based on how you have played the hand until the river?
From SB (normally wide range) we Call/Check/Call/Donk Bet ...

:f_ugly:

But again... not a huge revelation - what would make it or break it for me would be stats on villain, our stats and any weird table dynamics on previous hands.

Originally posted by nutural
:f_ugly:

i totally understand the b/f on river, but I would challenge myself - then why we call on Turn? We call, our Flush came and ... we bet/fold?

That is a very good point, but
Hes a rec so he could still call a river bet with a J, or a straight or worse flush
OTT I dont think you can fold to such a small bet with 2nd pair and NFD though

@slippyjim,
I don't have much hands with him.
But I saw he 3X in the other hand as well. So I don't have a clue OTF.
Yeah, OTT, it looks very polarized, and I think a standard play could be check-call vs. polarized range.
But, I lead as a recreational player did not bluff enough with weak holdings, and faced a sudden raise.

I think my decision was wrong mathematically, but my intuition told me to save some chips. I am not sure though

I didn't read other comments to not influence my answer.
I think I would play it the same way as you but call on that min raise on hte river
I didn't over analyse it tho,
interesting hand indeed.