0.50$ / KK / bubble

I don't think you made a big mistake playing the hand the way you did it but I see certain reasons for which I would have taken other decisions preflop as well as on the flop.

Of course we are never really enthusiastic about getting at in as a midstack against the bigstack at the bubble when there is still one shortie around - even with KK and on such a dry board - but of course folding the turn can never be an option here against an average opponent at this buyin-level so your turn-shove was the only way to go as played.

One can argue about whether or not it is a good idea to raise pre because of the stack distribution. I think it will happen far too often that the bigstack flats and an ace appears on the flop... Then you can basically just check/fold your hand and you will be filled with disgust after such an experience.

As played, I would simply shove on the flop. If he is just bluffing, I consider it extremely unlikely that he will fire another bluff-donkbet on the turn, unless you have specific reads on him... If he has a queen, you will get it in anyway, be it on the flop or on the turn... By shoving the flop you just do not give him any cheap drawing opportunity... What would have happened if an ace had appeared on the turn? I guess you would have been inclined to vomit.

Summary:
- my preferred line would have been a direct shove pre for the reasons named above
- as played push flop
- the bubble is not the spot where we as a midstack want to play tricky lines against the bigstack when there are shorties around
- please don't tell me he had QJ or a set

Pre inducing is fine w KK especially if de big stack(s) will try to punish us enough, flop I would rather just shove. We will get value from every Q and I wouldn't be surprised if villain even would call A7 or so. Besides, it will keep our decisions relatively easy

the bubble is not the spot where we as a midstack want to play tricky lines against the bigstack when there are shorties around

+1 to this.
I like pre 2x and affter he bets just shove flop, ace or Q on turn would be ugly.

I was wondering how easy our turn call (which technically equals a shove) actually is, considering this is a bubble situation and we, as a midstack, are up against the bigstack. I came to the conclusion that shoving the turn might not be +EV after all, it certainly depends on the extent of SB's braindeadness...

I played around a little with the pokerstrategy equilab and here are my results (warning: my experience with experimenting with ranges and calculating equities is highly limited and therefore the feedback of a more experienced player on my considerations would be great):

On the turn, we have to pay 1622 chips for the chance of winning 5144, so cEVwise, we need an equity of ~31.5%... Because of the bubble situation and the stack distribution however, we have to add quite a huge risk premium I suppose. My guess would be a risk premium of around 5% in this spot. Is this guess appropriate? Is there a way to calculate the correct risk premium for a certain spot? With a 5% risk premium, our needed equity $EVwise would be ~36,5%

If we assume that villain is not a completely braindead fool, what could his range look like in this spot? I think we can discount AA, KK, QQ and AQ because he would have probably 3-bet-shoved these hands pre unless he is tricky... Let's assume villain only makes this play with TPGK or better hands... In this case, his turn-shoving range may include the following hands:

22, 77, KQ, QJ and maybe Q7s (if he is bad enough to call this hand preflop, which then again would probably mean that he would have opted for the same line with Q8s, Q9s, Q6s etc., making our turn-shove mandatory and +EV without any doubt).

So let's ignore the Q7s and put him on the following range: 22, 77, KQ and QJ. Against this range, our equity is 36,36%, making our turn-shove break-even at best $EVwise. If we add Q7s to his range, our equity drops to 34,78%. If we exclude Q7s from his range and replace it with QT, our equity grows to 55, 37%, making our turn-shove certainly +EV again.

I found this quite interesting to illustrate that it can depend on a single combo or two if a play that we would normally consider as "standard" is in fact really as mandatory as it might appear at first sight.

There are certainly loose-passive type opponents who will call you pretty wide preflop but give you so much action only with hands like TPGK or better. So in a worst case scenario, our turn-shove might even become -EV.

In a vacuum, however, against an unknown opponent at this buyin-level I would still stick to the turn-shove, relying on the assumption that he will have enough Qx and perhaps other random spazz in his range to make our turn-shove +EV.

We are playing on the bubble and with plenty of fish in a 50c SNG we don’t need to play our hand tricky and I would shove right away, but min raising isn’t too bad ether. So long we are stack off if he leads in to us with a lot of ugly turn cards for us.

As played I expect we have still a lot of the time the best hand with our KK against the big stack and I would still stack off here, but ICM is ugly in spots like this and that’s why it’s easier to get the money in on earlier streets with more fold equity and against a looser range as well I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987