888 5$ 9-man turbo 20/40 bluff 3-bet from BU with Q9o vs. reg and crazy tiltmonkey-action postflop

I call this fancy play syndrome, totaly unnecessary way to overplay mediocre hand in early state of game.

Unfortunately this feedback does not appear helpful to me at all.

Do you think that it is in general a bad idea to try and install a bluff 3-bet range against regs in the early phase of an SNG in order to maximise value for our top range?

If we have a decent sample of him you can make some bluff 3bets if he folds too much on 3bets, but in general I wouldn’t play to aggressive yet in a SNG when we have a decent edge on most players.

Cheers,
SDK1987

First some questions:
- how many hands do you have on villain?
- what is his openingrange from that position?
- with that in mind, why did you bluff him?
- when villain calls, what is his flat range oop in a 3bet pot?
- on this board, why did you cbet?

1. around 700

2. I can only estimate something like: 55+, A8o+, A2s+, KTo+, K9s+, QJo, QTs+, JTs, T9s

3. I bluffed him because we had been playing together in lots of tourneys already without much preflop 3-betting history in the early game. I therefore expected him to play pretty straightforward against my 3-bet, i.e. never 4-bet bluffing, 4-bet shoving AA, KK and maybe QQ and flatcalling JJ and maybe QQ and/or TT... If that assumption had been correct, my 3-bet should have been auto-profitable because of him folding so much...

4. If I were villain and if I were up against another reg with whom I didn't have a huge 3-betting history, my flatcalling range in that spot would be extremely small, probably only including JJ and QQ and maybe TT... A looser villain that puts me on a looser 3-betting range might call here with all the hands which have a good playability postflop like most of his suited broadways... What would you expect his flatcalling range to look like in such a spot?

5. I c-bet because I expect him to fold all the broadway hands without a ten he might have flatcalled with as well as all ace high type of hands... Although, as I already pointed out, the most difficult part in this hand for me was to estimate his flat-calling range. And, as a metagame consideration, I don't want to let him see my bluff with Q9o so I want to give it at least one try to win the hand without a showdown...

2. why estimate? If you have 700 hands, you should have a clear positional RFI%. Or am I missing something?
I'm am opening wider than the range you give. Any pp and a lot more sc's or suited one gappers.
3. don't assume villain knows/sees this too. He maybe multitabling, may not even use a HUD and/or will have no clue against who he is up to. So forget about dynamics. Is his fold3bet% really that wide? Are you sure? What do the stats say?
4. Without stats it is really hard to say. I've seen people flatting 66 in that position, but I've also seen AA. So thats really villain dependent.
5. I like the usage of the scarecard and really put through the bluff all streets. I think you should be able to fold out some pp's sometimes, but before we can say how many pp are still in his range. First we have to break down his range correctly...

2. His RFI% from MP is ~27 which lies probably somewhere in between the ranges assumed by you and me: 55+, A7o+, A2s+, K9o+, K5s+, Q9o+, Q8s+, Jto, J8s+, T9s, 98s
However, I think it is more likely that he raises, like you suggested, any pocket and some more suited (gap) connectors than hands like K5s or Q9o if he has these stats... Furthermore, HEM does not differentiate between the three MP positions and from MP3 he is certainly significantly looser than from MP1 so probably your assumption regarding his opening range was closer to the truth than mine. Ingame I did not check his RFI stats - do you always do this before 3-betting an opponent?

3. Good point concerning the possibility of him not being aware of any dynamics etc... I guess his fold to 3b stats are not of a high significance because of a too small samplesize? However, lacking other criteria, we shall continue our considerations based on these stats. His overall fold to 3-bet% is 50 (samplesize only 12 hands) and from MP it is 75% (samplesize only 4 hands). Interestingly enough, always when he did not fold to a 3-bet he flatted (he never 4-bet). The samplesize is very small (only 12 hands) but that might be a tendency from which we can draw some conclusions... It hints at me being wrong with my assumption that he is folding a lot to 3-bets...

4. Based on the stats and the above considerations derived from them one could assume that his flatting range is around 50% of his initial raising range (probably a little smaller I guess). If we apply these numbers we get something like the following flatting range: 77+, ATo+, A9s+, KJo+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs+ This flatting range appears quite reasonable to me and it might well be lying pretty close to the truth, perhaps excluding A9s, KJo, QTs and JTs... It is still questionable, however, if he is really flatting AA and KK...

5. From all the hands of the flatting range elaborated above, he should fold to my c-bet:
- for sure:
- AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, QJs

- perhaps:
- 77, 88, 99

- never:
- AT, KTs, QTs, TT+

If that assumption is correct, my c-bet will be profitable I suppose, although it might play an important role whether or not KK and AA are part of his flatting range...

Let's assume the ranges assumed above are more or less correct, in this case his range on the turn includes:

- for sure:
AT, KTs, QTs, TT, JJ, QQ

- perhaps:
77, 88, 99, AA, KK

Among these hands, he should fold to my turn-shove:
- 77, 88, 99, JJ, QQ

So after all the profitability of my play seems to be mainly dependant on two questions:
1. Are AA and KK part of his flatting range?
2. With how many low/medium pockets does he flat pre and call my c-bet on the flop?