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I'm studying a villain and need some advice/fact checking!

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rvnikauj
Joined: 03.02.2017

Well Villain who is usually shortstack then changes to BSS when doubles down but more or less keep the same aggressive pre/postflop style. He has this relevant stats in EP (hands in this position 300):
VPIP: 16,12
PFR: 16,12
Call PF 3bet: 42,86%
4bet=28,57%
Fold to 3bet=28,57%

Well isolating his range in equilab I landed at:
16,12%=22+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KTo+
Then his push range (4,61%) could be:
TT+, AQ+
Well here comes my doubt, selecting a range which would give me EV+, Rake=3%
If he is 50 BB, EV=(1,5+3+9+47+47)*0,97*X-47*(1-X)
So EV=0 for X=31% But I don't want to get even.
And EV=14 BB for x=41,5% meaning JJ+, AK+
Ev 14bb is very ambitious, is allright?


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Pajod
Joined: 05.08.2008

How many hands do you have on the villain ?
What sample for his EP stats ?
What is his fold to 5b ?


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rvnikauj
Joined: 03.02.2017

Originally posted by Pajod
How many hands do you have on the villain ?
What sample for his EP stats ?
What is his fold to 5b ?

300 hands in EP and no data 5bet available he has call 4bet+ 100% (A single hand with AQs against a 4betted hero's AA).


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