3$ 9 man Turbo - Bubble - push or fold?

How much you think that SB pushes against BB? Using sngwizard its fold thinking that sb will fold almost every hand (expecting that bb call) so i give a thight range (9.5% or little bit more) and BB probably call at least 20% (if not more due to his short stack) and with that range is fold, you need at least 44 for ev+

Cumps

If BB calls my shove with 20% 22 is clear fold. By the time I was playing the game my thinking was that SB and BB are with almost identical stacks - so they will both try to avoid busting out on 4th. So I give them the same range, regardless of their position and FGS. SB has 0% PFR so I don't think he will shove enough, not at all even (it is small sample on the other hand). I think I played the hand badly.

P.S. Having a bad run and trying to find my leaks - there is quite high % of 4th places, hopefully I'm not leaking a lot.

Based on the Nash ranges 22 is a push, but I’m sure the SB and BB will call wider than they should and that’s why I would fold 22 for sure here.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Originally posted by SDK1987
but I’m sure the SB and BB will call wider than they should and that’s why I would fold 22 for sure here.

Why are we so sure?
We are on the bubble, have both villains covered. Even if both villains look somewhat fishy, the (passive) SB must surely feel that he is risking his tourney life when also the BB is at risk. I think we have lots of FE and missing a shove here is surely missing ROI long term.

I have grinded through these stakes on 888 recently and I can 100% confirm sdk's evaluation of the situation.

You will find that the donkey's nasti- and braindeadness is almost limitless in these games. They would not adjust their calling ranges in a bubble situation compared to e.g. 7-handed play... They have no clue about ICM, risk premium and such concepts. They only do one thing: Look at their hand. If they like it, they will pull the trigger. ICM, bubble factors, pot odds, stack distribution, history, meta game considerations - all these thing are irrelevant to the donks...

Meh, ... just ran it through a calculator where for the sake of calculation I ruled out both blinds calling.
Seems like they can only call w 77+, ATs, AQo here from GTO perspective. If we think villains will call small pp and broadways (KJ, KQ) and weaker aces this becomes a clear fold very quickly. I can see them calling this often indeed, so agree with SDK an Bruno here. Didn't realize how close 22 is.

It is close indeed, thank you for the input guys, seems that I should tighten up more even with big stacks OTB. Thank you again, we had some good discussions here.

I would certainly not push in that situation.