JJ MP vs BU, flatcall turn brings nut four to a straight, river pairs board overbet jamm villain

It’s an interesting hand for sure. You could consider to raise the flop with our set, because only AQ and KK in his range you we will lose against and the board is draw heavy with straight draw possibilities.

The turn is a bad card for us, but most likely for his range as well and now he’s checking I don’t expect he has AA, KK or a straight and is betting not that bad I think. If he would raise he has it off course and if he’s calling we have beat him most of the time.

The river is also nasty, because the board paired. I don’t know what he want to accomplice with a over shove. I don’t think he has to often better full houses and I would call this.

Cheers,
SDK1987

Turn is for me a xb as well. We will not achieve much by betting as we isolate ourselves vs good hands.

Seeing spoiler: We will only winst vs QQ so I guess this is one of those crying folds.

I doubt he has only nuts here. We have to be good, 72 / (+72+72+59.5) => 35% of the time.

I think with third nuts we get it here. I do think this guy spazzes out with some of his value hands there. Although, close spot in my opinion. We dont make a lot of money here, I guess, so folding with close to nuts is an option?

check back the turn for sure
EDIT: bet's okay actually here to get value out of 2 pairs etc. which is harder than on the river

pretty easy river fold now
If he's sick enough to turn AJ into a bluff this way he deserves the pot

Actually I will come back to this hand on Tuesday 20: 00 CET at the start of our Coaching, see you there!

Hey, I agree this is fold Otr. Just look at villains stats, he is not gonna do this with q. On addition ppl are scared on paired boards and tend to be passive on them, which even lowers the likelihood this nit would overplay his anything. Also ppl do not bluff Rivers Often enough, not even from far.

Edit: Sorry, I misunderstood the hand, didn´t realize we beat KT, AT. That said I believe it´s BE decision. He wouldn´t probably play AT this way, so this leaves us KT of clubs only, which is one combo. And there is AA, KK which is 6 combos (hope that number is correct ♦). So, still it seems like a fold, because as I said before, I don´t expect villain to play his Qx this way.

Edit2: Tbh, I don´t really see him betting almost pot with top set OTF, so I would exclude some KK outta his range. I would say he has the exact KT of clubs there, though putting somebody on one combo is always...weird ♦.

I would have checked the turn. You are way behind his range on the turn. If he then overbet shoves the river I would have snap called. He could just try to get you off a queen.

If you assign villain QQ+,KQs,QJs,KQo so you have 76% here. Even if he has only QQ+ you have 50%.

HE IS NIT , I FOLD