AA fold to an enormous shove

I don't see a need to bet so big on the flop (dry board)

If 1 or both players are calling stations I don’t think it’s bad to bet so big for value, but then you need to call a shove as well with an over pair I think. The button can still have some top pair combo’s I think, but if you are against a set is unlucky I think.

Cheers,
SDK1987

I think that preflop size is also a bit too big, unless BTN is a calling station. For postflop I agree with SDK1987. In general, I would cbet 1/2 and fold vs a raise 3-way.

Big sample on the button. Posted his stats after the hand. The button is a solid reg, I have not seen him make any mistakes post-flop lately.
That is why his shove intimidated me so much, normally I am the aggressive one at the table.
Forgot to post the BB's stats, unfortunately I have a small sample (46 hands). BB looks aggro.

BB
VP$IP: 29.5% Aggression Factor: 2.0
PFR: 20.5% Aggression Frequency: 33.3%
3-Bet%: 7.1%

I would have a hard time folding this at NL2. After your big bet, I would probably call the shove. Against this kind of Villain and on this board, it may be correct to fold (and at any other stakes against regs I would probably do so), but we are at NL2 after all. If someone had the starting $2 at the beginning of the hand, I don't think you can afford to fold here, ever. Villains may shove some overpairs like JJ, QQ, also KK. Seeing as the Villain at BTN doesn't like to 3Bet preflop, it leads me to think that he may even flat KK preflop and shove on this kind of board.

If he had a set would he just shove on this dry flop? Its possible... But Im not folding. Like they said that is a really big 3bet and Cbet sizings. I can easily see him putting you on AQ/AK and shoving 77+ here.
And that sizing isnt that big, its 1.50 to you because you are the effective stack. Its pretty trivial call

The problem is that I have reads on these NL2 tag fish reg's, they are "stupid" set miners (excuse my patronizing), they call too much pre flop with their weak pairs, and I know they have JJ QQ KK when they call my big bets post flop (my AA shine in those spots) and I know that they have a set when they are aggressive themselves post flop on dry boards.

What is your 3betting range? I doubt you 3bet 33 and 66. So if you fold AA, you have 3 combos of top sets that continue vs a shove and nothing else.

Hes risking ~220 to win ~150 meaning in order for him to make money with any 2 cards you have to fold 68% or more. When you fold the second nuts in your range - AA you fold more than 85%. Hes printing money at this point.

And dont mind that its a 3way pot because by the time he makes his decision the pot is HU.

You are spot on.

At NL2, I only 3bet value hands, 88+ and AT+. (Imagine, some of my opponents 3bet 0%!!)
I have a theoretical light 3bet range, Ax, small pairs and connectors, but I will not start using it before I get to NL50.

What you are saying is theoretically correct and i will reread your paragraph once I get there (NL50), it is just that at the stupid nano stakes I play, they only play the nuts.