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AKo - What should I do on the River?

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AnXfile378
Joined: 20.07.2017

Hey all! So my question for this hand is what should I do on the river. After analyzing this hand a little deeper I have my thoughts, but would love your feedback. Also would love feedback if calling the raise was the right play.

As always with Global Poker, I have to type out the hand. I will post the relevant players stack sizes...

NO HUDS
NL 50

Stack Sizes
BU - 105.64 BB
SB (HERO) - 101.56 BB

SB (HERO) - Posts 0.5 BB
BB - Posts 1 BB

HERO DEALT A♣: K♠:

UTG - FOLD
MP - Raise 2 BB
CO - Call 2 BB
BU - Call 2 BB
SB (HERO) - Raise 8 BB
BB - Fold
MP - Fold
CO - Fold
BU - Call 6 BB

So my isolation raise here was a success, as I got it down to one player. I would have loved AKs, but still I would rather isolate here than just call the 2BB raise and have a big multiway pot

TOTAL POT: 26.25 BB

FLOP: T♠: 7♥: 4♣:

SB (HERO) - Bet 14 BB
BU - Raise 32 BB
SB (HERO) - Call 18 BB

So first I did a C-bet because this was a very dry board and I figured I should be able to take the pot with around a 2/3 bet. When he raises I dont think he has a set of 10s, because I feel like he would have 3 bet that based on the $1 raise, so if anything he has a Pair of 10, 7 or 4 since there are no draws on the board. I dont think he is calling my raise with 44, but he can definitely with 77 so he could have a set there too. In fact, at this point the more I think about it as I type it out, I prob should have assumed he had a set on the flop, prob 7's. In retrospect I prob should have folded to this raise.

TOTAL POT - 85 BB

TURN: Ts: 7♥: 4♣: 2♠:

SB (HERO) - Check
BU - Check

Some things become clearer when you are analyzing a hand. Here the BU checks.. why when he was so aggressive on the flop? I dont think he has a set now, because if he had a set, he would clearly bet, so either he was chasing a backdoor flush draw, or he has a pair of 10, 7, 4. The 2nd spade and his check should tell me know he fears me having a flush draw...

TOTAL POT - 85 BB

RIVER: Ts: 7♥: 4♣: 2♠: J♠:

REST OF HAND IN SPOILER

Spoiler

SB (HERO) - Check
BU - Check

BU Shows - 7♣: 6♣:

So after reviewing this hand, I think I should have thought back to the fact he checked on the Turn, showing weakness after he was trying to be so forceful on the Flop. I think I prob should have bet here representing the flush, that I think he was so scared of on the Turn. The reason I checked here and didnt bet was because I didnt have anything and I didnt want to invest any more money to this pot.

So the question is (answer this before you look at the spoiler, will you bet, or check on the river?

Thanks


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3 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

If you intentionally call his flop raise, that has to be made with a plan. You can't rely on the rest of the hand going check-check, check-check and you hold up to win.

I don't recommend it, but if you float flop, you have to go AI OTR. What I am saying is that you have to trust your instincts if they tell you to float. My instinct is to fold OTF, even if I know I get bluffed out on occasion. Taking a stand with no hand and no draw is very masculine, but not profitable against other, even minutely, masculine players.


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Varune
Joined: 24.04.2009

Have to agree with Yohan.

Also squeeze bigger preflop, 2-8 is a sizing i would use HU preflop, there are 2 callers so i'd make it atleast 11-12 now.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Everything I was going to say has pretty much already been said above :f_biggrin:

I would squeeze bigger pre.
OTF I'm not 100% sure about betting. I would sometimes just check but I guess betting should be ok too. Checked this with a solver and optimal thing to do seems to be mix some checks and bets.
Vs that raise I would fold.
If you decide to call and villain checks behind OTT I think river is a shove.


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