Here is a Hand for analysis:
What are you thoughts guys and if called what to do on different runouts?
Opponent unknown, no stats also.
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2 replies
Think you overplayed it a bit here. think if general you be best to just call pre and play the hand in position. If you choose to 3 bet and he 4bets you are way behind in general and it is better to just fold to the 4bet.
Postflop is the reason why you are better off just giving up pre vs the 4 bet. you hit a decent flop for your hand top pair with the Jack kicker but you still likely be behind vs his range. Now you pay off an other 15 bb and the turn comes pretty much a blank and villian bets 2/3 pot leaving him bit more then a half pot bet left to shove the river. you already set youself up to commit 1/5 of your stack with an marginal hand vs an fairly early open position that you don't have any reads and stats on. calling turn would be a huge mistake as pretty much you are hoping for him to 4bet AK then bluff flop and turn which is most likely the wrong assumtion as most people aren't that aggressive most of the time and if you are not making that assumption you have 20 % equity to spike a 9,T or a J if he has QQ+.
80 % of the time you loose an other 42bb on turn and fold the river
20 % of the time you win his 42bb + 79bb ( assuming he will always shove on the river which he might not do if a 9,T or J of hearts comes off)
(0.8 * -42bb) + (0.2 * +121 ) = 0 bb which makes it marginal even if he shoves every river and he might just check behind some rivers that improve your hand.
Pre-flop I would just call as well. If you want to 3bet you need to fold on the 4bet for sure.
JTs will play pretty good post-flop and you don’t want to turn this hand in to a bluff.
As played we hit top pair and we only beat a hand like AK maybe and the rest are TT+ and I would still give up and otherwise the turn is an easy fold.
Cheers,
SDK1987