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Flopped set on flashy board - multiway

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bigdog63
Joined: 24.10.2011

SB is 10/7 over 60 hands with a 3bet of 0.0 and no postflop stats
MP is a reg with 24/20 over 4k hands, cbet is 41%, fold to cbet to raise of 50% (small sample)

When the turn completes the spade flush, and MP leads, I hate my life and myself for not having raised larger OTF.
As played, vs. two passive players... ????

Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $16.21 (101.3 bb)
BB: $24.04 (150.3 bb)
UTG: $24.40 (152.5 bb)
MP: $54.71 (341.9 bb)
Hero (CO): $24.58 (153.6 bb)
BTN: $16 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8♣: 8♦:
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, BTN folds, SB calls $0.27, BB folds

Flop: ($1.21) A♠: 3♠: 8♥: (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $0.64, Hero raises to $1.92, SB calls $1.92, MP calls $1.28

Turn: ($6.97) 2♠: (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $4.46,

Hero ???


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2 replies
la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Looks bad. I somehow doubt that would be a bluff :f_biggrin:
You need 28% equity to make a break even call and with your 10 full house/quads outs you have roughly 21%. If you believe you can get 5-6$ more out of villain every time you hit your FH OTR, then you have good enough implieds to make the call.
My guess is that it is close. Fold is probably fine. Don't hate calling.


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bigdog63
Joined: 24.10.2011

thx


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