QQ97ss vs reg

Use pokerjuice or odds oracle and see how often at least one of the three opponents has a flush or a set.

Ok, so for example, I gave SB a range of $FI30 excluding 8% oop 3b. With that he has flush 20% of the time, and set 8% of the time so 28% of the time total. I'd assume similar % for the other players so I think we've answered the question whether a cbet is likely to be good here (i.e. not!).

Does that sound right?

Could you also give me some input on the hand as played? Thanks

As played I would just fold to a raise. There is an overcard on the board, so you might be drawing 2-outer against some of his bluffs. What is the plan on different turns, when you call the flop?

Interesting. I'm assuming that in order to x/r bluff me here he needs nfb. If he has tp+nfb I guess he could also turn that into a bluff (since he blocks my top set) but it seems less ideal. However, I agree that even when he gives up, we won't always be happy to get our hand to SD.

So question is: if he has nfb a lot more often than nf and almost always makes this play can we call flop with intention to take it away later (i.e. we plan on bluffing oursleves)? I think we probably can't because on a blank turn he may just continue barreling the nfb - do you agree? So we're looking for very specific runnout - like the one we got - to be able to continue

If so, folding flop seems best (and not cbetting even better!) - is that about right?

If his range is 50% pre, he has Ahh 60% and Ah 40% of times. So he has 3/5 times the nutflush compared to just blocker. Interesting thing is that against his range of Ahxxx (without the flush) you have 38% equity.

So if he bluffs his Ah always, his bluffing range is ahead of you. If his range on the flop is Ahxxx you have 17% equity. Quite bad spot to make a big calldown. Cos if he is raising the flop with Ah, I don't think he is just one and done. The power comes from the big turn bet and possible river bet. Although here he was one and done, but he shouldn't.

If hero's plan is to call and then bet if opponent checks, to make him fold a blocker (he didn't want to barrel), there are a lot of "what if's..." in it. He might check the nuflush to induce something. He might have a set that he check-calls. He might have the blocker and he check-raises. Or then opponent just barrels the turn and hero has a big decision with a hand that doesn't even beat opponents bluffing range.

4way flop with just air, I would check-fold always.

Thanks, everything you say makes sense.

One last question: do you think villain should x/r KK/88/22 here? And if so, is it so I'll spew with Qh blocker or ...?

He shouldn't. Just Ahxxx hands, if anything.

Ah, that's what I thought myself. But when you said about the turn: "He might have a set that he check-calls. " I was thinking that was unlikely.

Yeah, if you suspect nfb bluff shouldnt be calling it down with such holdings ♦ He should just continue so its kind of hard to bluff yourself at any point after flop cr.

Also if he is tight he shouldnt have that many bare rag Ah's, maybe some with high cards with it but you could be beat even against those bluffs and again, he should just continue barreling making your life difficult.