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Doing the calculations - set vs flush

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LacsapR
Joined: 14.07.2011

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $6.25 (125 bb)
BB: $9.36 (187.2 bb)
UTG: $16.54 (330.8 bb)
MP: $5.94 (118.8 bb)
CO: $6.07 (121.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $6.33 (126.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 2♥: 2♦:
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, SB folds, BB calls $0.07

Flop: ($0.26) A♥: 2♠: 4♥: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.17, BB calls $0.17

Turn: ($0.60) T♥: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.29, BB raises to $0.80, Hero folds

how do I do the calculation here - is that correct?
I calculated 10 outs (2 for quads and AAA, 444, TTT for a full house) assuming he has the flush as he check raises me...
so 10 outs and rule of thumb *2 as we see 1 more card then means I have about 20% equity

the pot odds: we have to call a bet of $0,51 to win a pot of total $2,20 --> about 23%

So its 20% equity vs 23% pot odds which means we have a call.

is that correct?
Is there an easier way to find this out (e.g. looking at pot odds of roughly 3:1 instead of calculating)

Results:

Spoiler

$1.18 pot ($0.05 rake)
Final Board: A♥: 2♠: 4♥: T♥:
BB mucked and won $1.13 ($0.55 net)
Hero mucked 2♥: 2♦: and lost (-$0.58 net)


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8 replies
lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016

0.51/2.20 = 23.2% of the pot.

Our equity needs to be greater than that for a profitable call.

We have 10 outs among the 46 cards remaining in the deck. 10/46 = 21.7%.

Therefore, if he ONLY does that with the flush and never bluffs with a worse hand than yours, then calling would lose money in the long run if we consider pot odds alone.

If we believe he might put in more money OTR if the board pairs, giving us a full house, then we might justify a call based on implied odds. As it’s pretty close, I think that would be OK.

Of course, if he has a better set, then we’re way behind, but I guess x/r is more likely a flush. The cliché is that microstakes check raises are usually nuts.


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KatalonacX
Joined: 22.11.2013

Yes, you have around 22% and need around 23%, so it's clear call, only to see river card. If you hit, there is some implies.


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Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

AT is also a hand he could have but folding seems tight with a set yet.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

I'm literally using windows calculator ingame for these often and know a bunch of pretty high stakes players that do the same haha


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

Actually yeah I will definitely include windows calculator in the software coaching on Tuesday, I'd almost miss it, thanks Pascal!


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Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

Originally posted by LemOn36
I'm literally using windows calculator ingame for these often and know a bunch of pretty high stakes players that do the same haha

oh man i do the same. so this is THE tool that can give players a sick edge in 2018?


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lfcmichael
Joined: 30.10.2016

I actually use the calculator on my iPhone for all these things. Haha. It depends how comfortable people are with doing the computations on the fly.


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LacsapR
Joined: 14.07.2011

interestig to hear this guys now I feel less bad using this too :)


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