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SH T8o, Top Two Facing Turn Check/Raise

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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $52.81 (105.6 bb)
BB: $52.81 (105.6 bb)
UTG: $36.85 (73.7 bb)
MP: $53.55 (107.1 bb)
CO: $95.06 (190.1 bb)
Hero (BTN): $53.58 (107.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T♣: 8♦:
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($2.50) T♥: 8♠: 4♣: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.59, SB calls $1.59

Turn: ($5.68) 7♣: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.75, SB raises to $10, Hero???

Preflop: SB is unknown, having stats of 33/17 in 7 hands. BB is a reg.

Flop: Cbetting for value. Could go a bit bigger, I think. He could have hands like KQ, KJ, QJ, QT, JT, J9, T9, 98, 87, 76, 65, 99 which are most likelly calling.

Turn: A part of his range hits a straight, but I believe I have a value bet again. When he raises, I'm not sure what to do. I don't expect an unknown to raise draws at that point, so I beat only 87. Even though I think it's theoretically a call because I'm near the top of my range there, I believe it should be a fold in practice.


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4 replies
MatoStar
Joined: 22.07.2017

Yeah, I totally understand. From the beginning it looks like a snap call, but after considering I think it is (close) fold. The reasons are, because we aren't on the top of our range. We have a lot of better hands to call or raise: TT,88,77,44,AcTc,KcTc...J9,65s, Kc9c,Qc9c.. so that's it and folding here T8o don't have to be exploitable imo.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

I think that most players on stars Nl50 are not bluffing often enough. But, this guy is likely a fish because you have low sample on him and around half of the hands he played passive so i think he is more likely to be weak player. Weak player tend to have T7 here especailly because you min raised and he is in SB so he gets good pot odds he could have also hands like T4, 47 so i think that you have a call here. He could even overplay some AT+ hands. If it is not weak player, the worst case scenario is that you are playing against a guy who is never bluffing, so it can hardly be -EV call on average i think.
Correct way would be to see how often is population bluffing in this spot, how often it uses TP+ to raise on turn.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

Population (at NL25 and below) tend to raise the turn with 2pair+ roughly 50% of the time. This is already NL50 so I would assume turn bluff raises are little bit more common. I think overfolding in this spot is still decent but I have a hunch that this hand is a bit too strong to be folded.


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Coach
LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

I'd go close to pot on this turn
He has a bunch of pair+draw combos that aren't folding and you picked up a bunch of draws and strong hands yourself, bet big put pressure on his range. It would be easier as well vs c/r

Now I'd call vs the small size see what's up on the river, that's where I'd start making exploitive population folds vs an unknown


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