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910o ~ river value bet sizing

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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $23.61 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
SB: $105.11 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
Hero (BB): $25.25
UTG: $25.34 (VPIP: 22.25, PFR: 17.30, 3Bet Preflop: 5.33, Hands: 464)
MP: $45.28 (VPIP: 17.86, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 9.35, Hands: 375)
CO: $21.35 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has T♥ 9♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50, 2 players) 3♣ T♠ 9♦
SB bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($6.00, 2 players) 3♠
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2.50

River: ($11.00, 2 players) T♦
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB calls $3.50

Spoiler

Hero shows T♥ 9♠ (Full House, Tens full of Nines)
(Pre 18%, Flop 75%, Turn 9%)
SB mucks A♣ A♥ (Two Pair, Aces and Tens)
(Pre 82%, Flop 25%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins $17.19

Range on the river I'm thinking overpairs or 10x. If I bet 1/2 (or bigger) I think he's folding overpairs. I also want him to raise his 10x so I think making a smallish size is optimal?


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LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

Definitely overbet
I probably go 13.90 but shove's good too

Just think about what hands you are representing at this point


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

Originally posted by LemOn36
Definitely overbet
I probably go 13.90 but shove's good too

Just think about what hands you are representing at this point

really?
I'm repping, JQ, 78, 8J 99, 10's 3's..?
Eeek I've no idea :f_frown:
I was just thinking more about his range an what he'll call with?


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LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

TT you 3bet pre right
And should flat flop anyways blocking his strong hands and having such a lock on the board
same with 99

the 3 actually takes out 33 from your range besides one combo
Tx ATs you 3bet pre and generally it plays better as a flat on the flop when he can have all overpairs and he can't

Draws sure you mix in flat and raise on the flop but BvB you can have every single straight draw combo

So you rep those draws, T9 ... that's it pretty much... very few value hands and a lot of potential bluffs

So he's either smart and realizes that and will call a good amount of hands because you look FOS
Or he doesn't hand read but it's still NL25, he'd be a bad player it's bvb so I'd still want to go big expecting people to station


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

Originally posted by LemOn36
TT you 3bet pre right
And should flat flop anyways blocking his strong hands and having such a lock on the board
same with 99

the actually takes out 33 from your range besides one combo
Tx ATs you 3bet pre and generally it plays better as a flat on the flop when he can have all overpairs and he can't

Draws sure you mix in flat and raise on the flop but BvB you can have every single straigh draw combo

So you rep those draws, T9 ... that's it pretty much... very few value hands and a lot of potential bluffs

So he's either smart and realizes that and will call a good amount of hands because you look FOS
Or he doesn't hand read but it's still NL25, he'd be a bad player it's bvb so I'd still want to go big expecting people to station

Oooo kay. With you. I was just thinking if I was in his shoes with a overpair and I bet massive on that paired river I could easily have a FH. But when you break down my range I'm never raising 10x on the flop other then 109. So I am capped in a way. Nuts/air on river.
OK. haha cheers lemon


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LemOn36
Joined: 07.02.2009

Spud1 got the same in the other thread, river's pretty straightforward/obvious big bet
even Snowie pots with whole range, and shows higher EV with overbets for this hand
And he raises more Tx on the flops against itself than humans will (like T7cc) So he has better value: bluff ratio.

The spot I intentionally skipped is turn though I honestly am not clear on that spot, your size combined with river bombs should work well I suppose but it's awkward with us not having any overpairs
Think it's too rare for me to analyze in depth


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