Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

Slowplay flop? And do we have a value bet OTR?

6 Posts
4 Users
0 Reactions
438 Views
AlbinJ
Joined: 07.05.2018

888 Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 106.6 BB
CO: 102.3 BB (VPIP: 20.86, PFR: 11.15, 3Bet Preflop: 0.90, Hands: 281)
BTN: 156.6 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 74)
SB: 107.7 BB (VPIP: 26.72, PFR: 20.48, 3Bet Preflop: 10.29, Hands: 1,117)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6♣ 6♦

CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 9♣ 2♦ 6♥
Hero checks, CO bets 4.3 BB, Hero calls 4.3 BB

Turn: (15.1 BB, 2 players) J♦
Hero checks, CO bets 12 BB, Hero raises to 36 BB, CO calls 24 BB

River: (87.1 BB, 2 players) 8♣
Hero bets 63.3 BB and is all-in, CO calls 59 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

Hero shows 6♣ 6♦ (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 20%, Flop 91%, Turn 2%)
CO shows J♠ J♥ (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 80%, Flop 9%, Turn 98%)
CO wins 194.9 BB
Rake paid 10.2 BB

Do we have a value bet OTR?
My answer:
Obvious hands that has us beat are QT which is 16 combinations.
I exclude 2pairs and better in his range because I think most people re-raise it OTT since there's OESDs and FDs present.
I'm not sure if he will call us with AA-QQ, but even if he does we are only slightly ahead with 52% equity vs AA-QQ & QT.
So, since we can't know for sure that he'll call with OPs I don't think we can value bet.
We maybe could bet very small like around 33% pot and fold to a raise. That would also be a easy decision because he won't raise any worse and he'll probably won't bluff us.

If we think checking is correct OTR, can we bluffcatch?
My answer: Villain is unknown and all other draws missed but QT. If we think he'll bluff QTs, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdTd, KdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, QTo }, than we have a crystal clear call even if he jams. But we can't know for sure that he'll bluff these combos.
Therefore I think we can't bluffcatch.

Is calling correct OTF?
Answer: I have no idea why I just called, I usually raise these hands. If we raise we can get value from OPs and OESDs. The benefit of just calling here is that if he decides to go crazy with some hand we can get value from that, but I don't have any reads that villain is doing this, also he's pretty tight PF so that might be a indication that he waits for the good spots. I think calling is a mistake here.


Reply
Quote
5 replies
AlbinJ
Joined: 07.05.2018

Saw that in my second answer I accidently said that QT was a bluff which obviously is wrong.


Reply
Quote
Moderator
SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

You can always edit your post if you make a mistake.

Anyway, I would play the hand most likely the same way with middle set.
Another option could be to just call the turn to keep his range wider and check/shove the river against a random player.

Cheers,
SDK1987


Reply
Quote
Tonyx86
Joined: 28.03.2018

Nice played by villain!

On that dry board a x/r OTF would make many Ax fold. Any low turn card i most likely would donk. With the J i like ur x/r for some pot building.

Imo on that river villain would check back so many top pair and 2pair hands. Against a shove his calling range has us beaten often, but not always.

Never the less i prefer a thin bet to let him call with QQ+ and AJ.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

With the stack left on river - it is ok as played...


Reply
Quote
AlbinJ
Joined: 07.05.2018

Thanks for your reply. But i really wonder why check/call OTT would be an option? By raising OTT we can get value from draws such as 87s, QT & FDs. If we call and turn is a blank we might not get value if be doesnt decide to bluff. I don't doubt a second that raising is more +EV to get value from the draws.

Raising OTT = value from draws + made hands
Calling OTT = letting villain see river cheaply & outdraw us + no value from draws + only value from made hands

I think that all the hands he will call vs a check/shove OTR he'll call OTT, and possibley wider OTT due to the many draws.


Reply
Quote