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QQ ~ Turned set, to raise?

12 Posts
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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $21.49 (VPIP: 14.89, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 48)
SB: $12.72 (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
BB: $10.92 (VPIP: 35.42, PFR: 29.17, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 48)
Hero (UTG): $11.45
MP: $8.99 (VPIP: 20.57, PFR: 15.60, 3Bet Preflop: 3.92, Hands: 141)
CO: $12.16 (VPIP: 35.29, PFR: 35.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q♦ Q♣

Hero raises to $0.30, fold, CO raises to $0.90, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) 8♠ 3♠ J♣
Hero checks, CO bets $1.15, Hero calls $1.15

Turn: ($4.25, 2 players) Q♠
Hero checks, CO bets $2.65, Hero raises to $9.40 and is all-in, CO calls $6.75

River: ($23.05, 2 players) 4♥

Spoiler

Hero shows Q♦ Q♣ (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 50%, Turn 20%)
CO shows 9♠ J♠ (Flush, Queen High)
(Pre 19%, Flop 50%, Turn 80%)
CO wins $22.01

His range lookin like KK AA JQ 910s AKs AsKo
Wasn't sure about shipping but theres a shit ton of bad rivers for our hand.


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11 replies
juhiimi
Joined: 03.03.2009

I put him on the next range with what he can call your shove with: AA, KK (with a spade)JJ, AKo(with a spade),AsKs AQo(with a spade 1), QJ, baby aces with flush, T9s, SC with fluh like 7s6s, gappers 9s7s. Against this its you have 52% equity. Its close but without much information about villain i would play the same.


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xiaohetao
Joined: 29.05.2018

Although I prefer to 4bet to make the pot larger vs loose unknown opponents preflop, nice play as played. With top set vs this loose guy, you have to raise ott. On this board, He must be more willing to pay you with worse hands ott than otr.


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DannyHorsley
Joined: 03.12.2014

Originally posted by xiaohetao
Although I prefer to 4bet to make the pot larger vs loose unknown opponents preflop, nice play as played. With top set vs this loose guy, you have to raise ott. On this board, He must be more willing to pay you with worse hands ott than otr.

I agree that we could have 4bet this hand preflop. Villain is playing 35/35 in CO and so has a lot wider range. With more of a sample I think we would be seeing a much larger 3bet stat and we would have therefore been more comfortable making this move. I’d say bet something like $2.20 to $2.50.


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Tonyx86
Joined: 28.03.2018

It's out of the question u might 4bet preflop.

As played it's a unlucky setup. He would have called a x/r OTF as well. With simply flatting OTT u are still committed OTR.


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DecMate
Joined: 25.01.2009

We have 18 hands on him, anyone who takes into account and adjusts play off of 18 hands knows nothing about stats.
4b pre wouldn't be bad but we're deeper and folding to a 5B would be a waste of a good opportunity.

Yeah I agree Tony may as well stick it in while we have equity and can deny his.


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xiaohetao
Joined: 29.05.2018

Villain had 109 bb. It is not considered deep. If you make a 2x 4bet, he would still stick to his hand very often. If he 5bet push, you never fold QQ here.

Calling 3 bet with qq was as well a good option imo, but you should have done it with intention to trap because QQ was way ahead of his range. Therefore, on the drawy flop check raise > check call.

As played ott, you have to push because there were too many cards otr that might kill ur hand or at least your action.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

As flush is so much possible, I prefer to call turn and maybe river. With a raise you will fold most of his hands that are betting river too and you still beat.


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DannyHorsley
Joined: 03.12.2014

Originally posted by DecMate
We have 18 hands on him, anyone who takes into account and adjusts play off of 18 hands knows nothing about stats.
4b pre wouldn't be bad but we're deeper and folding to a 5B would be a waste of a good opportunity.

I agree that 18 is a very small sample and we should proceed with caution when trying to design a strategy around them. However, as Splitsuit says in his podcast on player profiling.. After just 30 hands we can get an idea of how a player plays. We are getting the idea that our opponent is a loose player. I think that we are ahead of a great portion of his range: AJ+, 99+, KQ+. Only hands that we are dominated by are AA and KK.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You should treat villain as unknown. Unless you have noticed somethingor have a note on his preflop tendencies.


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mlatasrb
Joined: 01.04.2012

call 3bet is very standard readless. I would donk turn and shove river on blank, most villain's are not able to fold TPGK, because many villain's would check behind TPGK on turn and you lose a lot of value by checking turn also you let TPGK with spade realize equity.
Turn still looks good, he beats you with T9s (if he doesn't check back turn), AKs, AJs the question is even if he has anything from that in range, so you have clear value and need protection.


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filip212
Joined: 30.05.2010

4bet PF if he 5bet or push stack off...
But in this situation i think on Turn is better call with plan push River if we complete fullhouse or bluffcatch river :)


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