Can a reraise/ fold on turn be justifiable or should we have a better play. Was it a sign of nut when UTG suddenly aggressive and willing to go broke. Please advise. Thanks guy.
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This is a bit of a strange one if you ask me. I think realistically, the only hand that villain could have that beat us here is AA (but I he would have bet the flop, though could be slow-playing which I think is unlikely with the straight draw already out there), A2s (which may be slightly loose to open with from UTG), 22, or 76s.
But if we think about what he could be shoving here with that we beat, it doesn't look good. In fact, it's likely only 44 or A4s on a board like this (I think he would raise A3 and 33 OTF). Tbh, I think OTT we have a bluff catcher due to the board being so coordinated. I think he would be betting hands like AK, AQ, A5, A3 OTF and showing such strength OTT doesn't make sense with the board showing A345.
I think a fold would be good here but I am curious to know what he had. Do you have any statistics on the player such as VPIP, PFR and WTSD?
With the 3bet OTT we isolate ourselves against straights and sets. Okay, we're beating 33 and 44 (6 combos), but are behind against 22, AA, A2s, 76s (13). Problem is, 33 and 44 villain would have cbetted for sure. Versus straights we do have some outs, but not enough.
As played it might be a fold. Imo we should flat villains turn raise. Even when the board pairs OTR we have a good chance to stack him off with the straight.