[Closed] [FL-SH$2/4] Q-high against a fish

Hi

With Q6o against this guy is very difficult to raise him in a blinds-battle:

I consider different aspects:

1. How much he folds after cont.bet on the flop?
30% or more? Good. If he open-limps from SB, I can raise with almost any2 and try to take the pot on the flop.
20% or less? Well, I think I cannot raise profitable preflop ! So I only raise with my equity edge. A2s+, K9s+ , Q9s+, J9s+, T9s+, 55+, A7o+, KTo+, QTo+ or something like that

2. Does he donk-bet flop often ? For example if he donks on the flop 30% or more, there are no reason to raise him with Q6o becouse he donks on the flop 7K5 and what do you do with Q6o?

So to make this kind of raise in a blinds-battle I want a passive fish. This guy is an aggro-donk, so I dont like the preflop line: no senso imo.

You can extract value check behind preflop, and let this guy bets when you flop a hand (also a pair of 6 is good hand on a blinds-battle). This guy plays very bad with this stats and he doesnt thinks too much ♦

As played bet flop is ok,
on the turn I also check for a free card, but if you think you are ahead against his range and he c/r turn very few times, you can bet/fold the turn imo. (bet turn for free SD also. Q high could be the best hand sometimes)

However River play depends on read: there are players that bet 100% on the river if you checks-behind the turn. You have this read ?

Everything you told me is valuable but I don't have enough hands on him to give
accurate statistics.

The reason for my PF raise is to increase my flop fold equity. Any A,K or Q is a good card to bet flop/bet turn. As a default play, I always raise PF, bet flop with any2 when SB complete to me. I'm not sure, but I think there's an article to play these situations.

From a mathematical point of view, I invest 1SB to win 1.5. That's a 2:3 odds. I need him to fold on the flop only 40% of the time for this move to be profitable. Furthermore, my hand is easy to play. In case of a raise, I have an easy fold if I hit nothing, + sometime, I will bad beat him. So I think the PF raise is EV+.

Sure it is opponent dependent, but fishes are not regular players. I don't have enough time to wait for accurate reads before he will quit the table.

One point is I should have bet the turn for freeSD ?

Here is my river equity. I'm facing villain's preflop range as there was no action on flop and turn :
Board: 2d 3d 9h 9d 3c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.696% 21.32% 06.37% 87 26.00 { Qh6d }
Hand 1: 72.304% 65.93% 06.37% 269 26.00 { 99-33, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A9o-A2o, KTo-K5o, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
27% -> enough for a "gambling" call

If you dont have enough stats on his post-flop play, the preflop raise I think is ok as default.
However I fold on the river (4:1).

Hi OlivierLu,

1:1,5 is not correct as you almost never win the pot with your raise. It's correct that you build up some fold equity but you need to consider if it's that much higher with a raise or not to make it worth.
So you have to bet at least the flop which makes it 2 SB to win 1,5 SB. Now that's 4:3 or 57% you have to win to make it break even.
I can't remember that article. Do you have a link for me? I would like to read a bit about that.

Postflop I play the same as you did. Yuo have not a lot fold equity and the pot is small so I like waiting for the river to decide whether to call or not. The 3 is one of the best cards so I like the call.

Originally posted by ciRith
I can't remember that article. Do you have a link for me? I would like to read a bit about that.

I just can't find it now... Perhaps I've read that in a book. If I ever find if, I will give you the link.

Originally posted by ciRith
Hi OlivierLu,

1:1,5 is not correct as you almost never win the pot with your raise. It's correct that you build up some fold equity but you need to consider if it's that much higher with a raise or not to make it worth.
So you have to bet at least the flop which makes it 2 SB to win 1,5 SB. Now that's 4:3 or 57% you have to win to make it break even.
I can't remember that article. Do you have a link for me? I would like to read a bit about that.

Postflop I play the same as you did. Yuo have not a lot fold equity and the pot is small so I like waiting for the river to decide whether to call or not. The 3 is one of the best cards so I like the call.

I dont understand this. Why 1:1,5 or 2:1,5 SB. (sb are small bets , isn't ¿?)
When the villain call there is 2 sb in the pot, if you raise (1sb investment) and the villain call there is 4sb in the pot and when you bet flop you invest 1 sb more. I would think you invest 2 sb (1sb raise +1 sb betflop) to win 3sb (2sb in pot when el villain openlimp and 1 sb when the villain call your raise).

Could you explian me ?

You are right. I have no idea what I did there before. :/

However if we check we invest 1 SB to win 2 BB so it has only to work 33% of the time. If our fold equity is 7% higher with a preflopraise then it's better to raise preflop.
Against a very loose opponent it won't be worth raising preflop with hands that are only good if we make him fold as they call too often.